Pakistan's overwhelming 88.5% implied probability in trader consensus stems from its pivotal role as the sole mediator in recent US-Iran negotiations, hosting the inaugural face-to-face talks in Islamabad on April 11-12, 2026, which lasted 21 hours but ended without a deal on ceasefire terms amid the ongoing Middle East conflict. Pakistani officials are now proposing a second round as early as this week, with White House statements today affirming Islamabad as the "very likely" venue due to its effective diplomacy. Switzerland and Turkey trail at 2.3% and 2.9% amid brief mentions of Geneva as an alternative, while "No Meeting by June 30" at 2.3% reflects optimism for swift resumption despite sticking points like sanctions and Lebanon fighting; late shifts could arise from venue disputes or escalations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于巴基斯坦 89%
土耳其 2.9%
截至6月30日未举行会谈 2.3%
瑞士 2.3%
$827,262 交易量
$827,262 交易量
2026-06-30
巴基斯坦
89%
土耳其
3%
截至6月30日未举行会谈
2%
瑞士
2%
其他
1%
俄罗斯
1%
卡塔尔
<1%
其他 - 欧洲
<1%
阿曼
<1%
奥地利
<1%
埃及
<1%
阿联酋
<1%
其他 - 中东/北非
<1%
沙特阿拉伯
<1%
伊朗
<1%
美国
<1%
伊拉克
<1%
哈萨克斯坦
<1%
意大利
<1%
巴基斯坦 89%
土耳其 2.9%
截至6月30日未举行会谈 2.3%
瑞士 2.3%
$827,262 交易量
$827,262 交易量
2026-06-30
巴基斯坦
$184,857 交易量
89%
土耳其
$47,104 交易量
3%
截至6月30日未举行会谈
$48,376 交易量
2%
瑞士
$76,999 交易量
2%
其他
$54,464 交易量
1%
俄罗斯
$30,001 交易量
1%
卡塔尔
$29,902 交易量
<1%
其他 - 欧洲
$58,334 交易量
<1%
阿曼
$35,914 交易量
<1%
奥地利
$27,270 交易量
<1%
埃及
$29,510 交易量
<1%
阿联酋
$29,642 交易量
<1%
其他 - 中东/北非
$31,136 交易量
<1%
沙特阿拉伯
$40,076 交易量
<1%
伊朗
$12,673 交易量
<1%
美国
$25,572 交易量
<1%
伊拉克
$20,349 交易量
<1%
哈萨克斯坦
$15,364 交易量
<1%
意大利
$29,719 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Pakistan's overwhelming 88.5% implied probability in trader consensus stems from its pivotal role as the sole mediator in recent US-Iran negotiations, hosting the inaugural face-to-face talks in Islamabad on April 11-12, 2026, which lasted 21 hours but ended without a deal on ceasefire terms amid the ongoing Middle East conflict. Pakistani officials are now proposing a second round as early as this week, with White House statements today affirming Islamabad as the "very likely" venue due to its effective diplomacy. Switzerland and Turkey trail at 2.3% and 2.9% amid brief mentions of Geneva as an alternative, while "No Meeting by June 30" at 2.3% reflects optimism for swift resumption despite sticking points like sanctions and Lebanon fighting; late shifts could arise from venue disputes or escalations.
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Apr 12, 2026, 4:43 PM ET
交易量
$827,262结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Apr 12, 2026, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Pakistan's overwhelming 88.5% implied probability in trader consensus stems from its pivotal role as the sole mediator in recent US-Iran negotiations, hosting the inaugural face-to-face talks in Islamabad on April 11-12, 2026, which lasted 21 hours but ended without a deal on ceasefire terms amid the ongoing Middle East conflict. Pakistani officials are now proposing a second round as early as this week, with White House statements today affirming Islamabad as the "very likely" venue due to its effective diplomacy. Switzerland and Turkey trail at 2.3% and 2.9% amid brief mentions of Geneva as an alternative, while "No Meeting by June 30" at 2.3% reflects optimism for swift resumption despite sticking points like sanctions and Lebanon fighting; late shifts could arise from venue disputes or escalations.
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$827,262结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Apr 12, 2026, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Pakistan's overwhelming 88.5% implied probability in trader consensus stems from its pivotal role as the sole mediator in recent US-Iran negotiations, hosting the inaugural face-to-face talks in Islamabad on April 11-12, 2026, which lasted 21 hours but ended without a deal on ceasefire terms amid the ongoing Middle East conflict. Pakistani officials are now proposing a second round as early as this week, with White House statements today affirming Islamabad as the "very likely" venue due to its effective diplomacy. Switzerland and Turkey trail at 2.3% and 2.9% amid brief mentions of Geneva as an alternative, while "No Meeting by June 30" at 2.3% reflects optimism for swift resumption despite sticking points like sanctions and Lebanon fighting; late shifts could arise from venue disputes or escalations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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