Traders assign a 95.3% implied probability to “No” because U.S. law treats large language models and other AI systems as tools or property rather than legal persons capable of forming criminal intent or standing trial. Recent state actions, including Florida’s proposed corporate liability bill and ongoing investigations into developers like OpenAI, target companies and users rather than the AI itself, consistent with longstanding product-liability and negligence frameworks. No jurisdiction has granted AI independent personhood or announced plans to indict an LLM by year-end. While a sudden legislative overhaul or unprecedented court ruling granting AI legal status could theoretically shift the outcome, such changes face steep constitutional and practical barriers and remain improbable in the final months of 2026.