Ongoing geopolitical tensions stemming from Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea and subsequent full-scale invasion of Ukraine have kept Moscow excluded from the G7, with member states maintaining unified sanctions and diplomatic isolation. Recent G7 summits and foreign minister statements have reiterated that any return hinges on verifiable withdrawal from Ukrainian territory and broader de-escalation, conditions unmet as of September 2026. Traders assign a 97.7% probability against rejoining before 2027 because institutional processes, alliance coordination, and domestic political constraints in Western capitals make rapid reversal improbable within the narrow remaining timeline. A comprehensive Ukraine peace deal or abrupt policy shift by key members could theoretically reopen discussions, though historical precedent shows G7 expansions or reinstatements unfold over multiple years.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
2% 概率
$53,561 交易量
$53,561 交易量
2026-12-31
是
2% 概率
$53,561 交易量
$53,561 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia officially rejoins the Group of Seven (G7) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the title of the group changes (e.g., to "G8"), this market will still resolve to "Yes" so long as that group remains functionally similar to the G7.
A formal rejoining must be acknowledged by a consensus of G7 member states to qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from G7 member states, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing geopolitical tensions stemming from Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea and subsequent full-scale invasion of Ukraine have kept Moscow excluded from the G7, with member states maintaining unified sanctions and diplomatic isolation. Recent G7 summits and foreign minister statements have reiterated that any return hinges on verifiable withdrawal from Ukrainian territory and broader de-escalation, conditions unmet as of September 2026. Traders assign a 97.7% probability against rejoining before 2027 because institutional processes, alliance coordination, and domestic political constraints in Western capitals make rapid reversal improbable within the narrow remaining timeline. A comprehensive Ukraine peace deal or abrupt policy shift by key members could theoretically reopen discussions, though historical precedent shows G7 expansions or reinstatements unfold over multiple years.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia officially rejoins the Group of Seven (G7) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the title of the group changes (e.g., to "G8"), this market will still resolve to "Yes" so long as that group remains functionally similar to the G7.
A formal rejoining must be acknowledged by a consensus of G7 member states to qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from G7 member states, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If the title of the group changes (e.g., to "G8"), this market will still resolve to "Yes" so long as that group remains functionally similar to the G7.
A formal rejoining must be acknowledged by a consensus of G7 member states to qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from G7 member states, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Nov 13, 2025, 11:25 AM ET
交易量
$53,561结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 11:25 AM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia officially rejoins the Group of Seven (G7) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the title of the group changes (e.g., to "G8"), this market will still resolve to "Yes" so long as that group remains functionally similar to the G7.
A formal rejoining must be acknowledged by a consensus of G7 member states to qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from G7 member states, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing geopolitical tensions stemming from Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea and subsequent full-scale invasion of Ukraine have kept Moscow excluded from the G7, with member states maintaining unified sanctions and diplomatic isolation. Recent G7 summits and foreign minister statements have reiterated that any return hinges on verifiable withdrawal from Ukrainian territory and broader de-escalation, conditions unmet as of September 2026. Traders assign a 97.7% probability against rejoining before 2027 because institutional processes, alliance coordination, and domestic political constraints in Western capitals make rapid reversal improbable within the narrow remaining timeline. A comprehensive Ukraine peace deal or abrupt policy shift by key members could theoretically reopen discussions, though historical precedent shows G7 expansions or reinstatements unfold over multiple years.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia officially rejoins the Group of Seven (G7) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the title of the group changes (e.g., to "G8"), this market will still resolve to "Yes" so long as that group remains functionally similar to the G7.
A formal rejoining must be acknowledged by a consensus of G7 member states to qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from G7 member states, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If the title of the group changes (e.g., to "G8"), this market will still resolve to "Yes" so long as that group remains functionally similar to the G7.
A formal rejoining must be acknowledged by a consensus of G7 member states to qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from G7 member states, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$53,561结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 11:25 AM ETOngoing geopolitical tensions stemming from Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea and subsequent full-scale invasion of Ukraine have kept Moscow excluded from the G7, with member states maintaining unified sanctions and diplomatic isolation. Recent G7 summits and foreign minister statements have reiterated that any return hinges on verifiable withdrawal from Ukrainian territory and broader de-escalation, conditions unmet as of September 2026. Traders assign a 97.7% probability against rejoining before 2027 because institutional processes, alliance coordination, and domestic political constraints in Western capitals make rapid reversal improbable within the narrow remaining timeline. A comprehensive Ukraine peace deal or abrupt policy shift by key members could theoretically reopen discussions, though historical precedent shows G7 expansions or reinstatements unfold over multiple years.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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