Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California’s 1st congressional district to a D+7 partisan voter index, creating a structurally Democratic-leaning seat that analysts at the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections rate as solid or safe Democratic. In the June 2026 top-two primary, Republican James Gallagher and Democrat Mike McGuire advanced to the November 3 general election, with McGuire positioned to benefit from the new boundaries and consolidated Democratic support. Trader consensus reflected in the 96.7% Democratic probability incorporates these fundamentals along with historical base rates for similarly rated districts. A Republican victory would require unusually high GOP turnout or a major late-cycle development capable of overcoming the district’s altered composition.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডCA-01 House Election Winner
CA-01 House Election Winner
$35,032 Vol.
$35,032 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
97%
Republican Party
2%
$35,032 Vol.
$35,032 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$26,310 Vol.
97%
Republican Party
$8,722 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California’s 1st congressional district to a D+7 partisan voter index, creating a structurally Democratic-leaning seat that analysts at the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections rate as solid or safe Democratic. In the June 2026 top-two primary, Republican James Gallagher and Democrat Mike McGuire advanced to the November 3 general election, with McGuire positioned to benefit from the new boundaries and consolidated Democratic support. Trader consensus reflected in the 96.7% Democratic probability incorporates these fundamentals along with historical base rates for similarly rated districts. A Republican victory would require unusually high GOP turnout or a major late-cycle development capable of overcoming the district’s altered composition.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
ভলিউম
$35,032শেষ তারিখ
Nov 3, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETরেজলভার
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California’s 1st congressional district to a D+7 partisan voter index, creating a structurally Democratic-leaning seat that analysts at the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections rate as solid or safe Democratic. In the June 2026 top-two primary, Republican James Gallagher and Democrat Mike McGuire advanced to the November 3 general election, with McGuire positioned to benefit from the new boundaries and consolidated Democratic support. Trader consensus reflected in the 96.7% Democratic probability incorporates these fundamentals along with historical base rates for similarly rated districts. A Republican victory would require unusually high GOP turnout or a major late-cycle development capable of overcoming the district’s altered composition.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ভলিউম
$35,032শেষ তারিখ
Nov 3, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETরেজলভার
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California’s 1st congressional district to a D+7 partisan voter index, creating a structurally Democratic-leaning seat that analysts at the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections rate as solid or safe Democratic. In the June 2026 top-two primary, Republican James Gallagher and Democrat Mike McGuire advanced to the November 3 general election, with McGuire positioned to benefit from the new boundaries and consolidated Democratic support. Trader consensus reflected in the 96.7% Democratic probability incorporates these fundamentals along with historical base rates for similarly rated districts. A Republican victory would require unusually high GOP turnout or a major late-cycle development capable of overcoming the district’s altered composition.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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