Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.2% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% across January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings, following confirmed pauses at the prior two gatherings on January 27-28 (10-2 vote) and March 17-18 (11-1 vote). This strong positioning stems from March 2026 CPI inflation surging to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—driven by a 10.9% gasoline price spike amid geopolitical tensions and elevated energy costs. Resilient labor markets and Fed Chair Powell's emphasis on data-dependent policy amid uncertainty further anchor expectations for no near-term cuts, with the March dot plot projecting just one reduction later in 2026. Realistic challenges include unexpectedly soft April CPI or weakening nonfarm payrolls ahead of the April 28-29 meeting, which could shift sentiment toward a modest easing.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডফেডের সিদ্ধান্ত (জানুয়ারি-এপ্রিল)
ফেডের সিদ্ধান্ত (জানুয়ারি-এপ্রিল)
Pause–Pause–Pause 99.2%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
Other <1%
$635,574 Vol.
$635,574 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
99%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
<1%
Pause–Pause–Pause 99.2%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
Other <1%
$635,574 Vol.
$635,574 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$91,281 Vol.
99%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$228,151 Vol.
1%
Other
$276,156 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.2% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% across January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings, following confirmed pauses at the prior two gatherings on January 27-28 (10-2 vote) and March 17-18 (11-1 vote). This strong positioning stems from March 2026 CPI inflation surging to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—driven by a 10.9% gasoline price spike amid geopolitical tensions and elevated energy costs. Resilient labor markets and Fed Chair Powell's emphasis on data-dependent policy amid uncertainty further anchor expectations for no near-term cuts, with the March dot plot projecting just one reduction later in 2026. Realistic challenges include unexpectedly soft April CPI or weakening nonfarm payrolls ahead of the April 28-29 meeting, which could shift sentiment toward a modest easing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ET
ভলিউম
$635,574শেষ তারিখ
Apr 29, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.2% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% across January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings, following confirmed pauses at the prior two gatherings on January 27-28 (10-2 vote) and March 17-18 (11-1 vote). This strong positioning stems from March 2026 CPI inflation surging to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—driven by a 10.9% gasoline price spike amid geopolitical tensions and elevated energy costs. Resilient labor markets and Fed Chair Powell's emphasis on data-dependent policy amid uncertainty further anchor expectations for no near-term cuts, with the March dot plot projecting just one reduction later in 2026. Realistic challenges include unexpectedly soft April CPI or weakening nonfarm payrolls ahead of the April 28-29 meeting, which could shift sentiment toward a modest easing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ভলিউম
$635,574শেষ তারিখ
Apr 29, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.2% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% across January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings, following confirmed pauses at the prior two gatherings on January 27-28 (10-2 vote) and March 17-18 (11-1 vote). This strong positioning stems from March 2026 CPI inflation surging to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—driven by a 10.9% gasoline price spike amid geopolitical tensions and elevated energy costs. Resilient labor markets and Fed Chair Powell's emphasis on data-dependent policy amid uncertainty further anchor expectations for no near-term cuts, with the March dot plot projecting just one reduction later in 2026. Realistic challenges include unexpectedly soft April CPI or weakening nonfarm payrolls ahead of the April 28-29 meeting, which could shift sentiment toward a modest easing.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা