Trader consensus on Polymarket favors an April 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC above pre-industrial levels at 44.5% implied probability, driven by March's fourth-warmest ranking at 1.48ºC per Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis, with sea surface temperatures nearing records amid ENSO-neutral conditions. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports subsurface warming in the equatorial Pacific, favoring ENSO-neutral through June (80% chance) before El Niño emergence (61% in May–July), which could sustain elevated warmth. Preliminary ERA5 near-real-time data through mid-April tracks continued high anomalies, though inherent forecast uncertainty remains from atmospheric variability and model ensembles; full bulletin expected early May will clarify resolution against historical April baselines exceeding 1.4ºC in peak El Niño years.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertApril 2026 Temperaturerhöhung (ºC)
April 2026 Temperaturerhöhung (ºC)
1,15–1,19ºC 44%
1,20–1,24ºC 27%
1,10–1,14ºC 14%
1,25–1,29ºC 8%
$120,843 Vol.
$120,843 Vol.
10. Mai 2026
<1,10ºC
4%
1,10–1,14ºC
14%
1,15–1,19ºC
44%
1,20–1,24ºC
27%
1,25–1,29ºC
8%
>1,29ºC
6%
1,15–1,19ºC 44%
1,20–1,24ºC 27%
1,10–1,14ºC 14%
1,25–1,29ºC 8%
$120,843 Vol.
$120,843 Vol.
10. Mai 2026
<1,10ºC
$28,327 Vol.
4%
1,10–1,14ºC
$23,018 Vol.
14%
1,15–1,19ºC
$13,890 Vol.
44%
1,20–1,24ºC
$15,815 Vol.
27%
1,25–1,29ºC
$27,729 Vol.
8%
>1,29ºC
$12,065 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors an April 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC above pre-industrial levels at 44.5% implied probability, driven by March's fourth-warmest ranking at 1.48ºC per Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis, with sea surface temperatures nearing records amid ENSO-neutral conditions. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports subsurface warming in the equatorial Pacific, favoring ENSO-neutral through June (80% chance) before El Niño emergence (61% in May–July), which could sustain elevated warmth. Preliminary ERA5 near-real-time data through mid-April tracks continued high anomalies, though inherent forecast uncertainty remains from atmospheric variability and model ensembles; full bulletin expected early May will clarify resolution against historical April baselines exceeding 1.4ºC in peak El Niño years.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volumen
$120,843Enddatum
10. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors an April 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC above pre-industrial levels at 44.5% implied probability, driven by March's fourth-warmest ranking at 1.48ºC per Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis, with sea surface temperatures nearing records amid ENSO-neutral conditions. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports subsurface warming in the equatorial Pacific, favoring ENSO-neutral through June (80% chance) before El Niño emergence (61% in May–July), which could sustain elevated warmth. Preliminary ERA5 near-real-time data through mid-April tracks continued high anomalies, though inherent forecast uncertainty remains from atmospheric variability and model ensembles; full bulletin expected early May will clarify resolution against historical April baselines exceeding 1.4ºC in peak El Niño years.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$120,843Enddatum
10. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors an April 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC above pre-industrial levels at 44.5% implied probability, driven by March's fourth-warmest ranking at 1.48ºC per Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis, with sea surface temperatures nearing records amid ENSO-neutral conditions. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports subsurface warming in the equatorial Pacific, favoring ENSO-neutral through June (80% chance) before El Niño emergence (61% in May–July), which could sustain elevated warmth. Preliminary ERA5 near-real-time data through mid-April tracks continued high anomalies, though inherent forecast uncertainty remains from atmospheric variability and model ensembles; full bulletin expected early May will clarify resolution against historical April baselines exceeding 1.4ºC in peak El Niño years.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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