Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 95.5% implied probability to no change in the Bank Rate at the upcoming April 30 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, backed by the unanimous March decision to hold at 3.75% amid sticky CPI inflation holding at 3.0% year-over-year through February 2026. This positioning reflects the Bank's upward revision of inflation forecasts to 3.5% in Q3 2026, driven by Middle East energy shocks elevating oil prices and persistent services inflation, tempering cut expectations despite labor market softening. Upside risks from wage growth and public inflation expectations further anchor the hold. Realistic challenges include a sharper March CPI drop below consensus or a sustained Middle East ceasefire easing energy pressures, potentially unlocking 25 basis point cut odds, though trader capital shows minimal pricing for shifts ahead of key data releases.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertEntscheidung der Bank of England im April?
Entscheidung der Bank of England im April?
Keine Änderung 95.6%
Erhöhung 4.3%
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte <1%
$454,182 Vol.
$454,182 Vol.
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
<1%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
<1%
Keine Änderung
96%
Erhöhung
4%
Keine Änderung 95.6%
Erhöhung 4.3%
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte <1%
$454,182 Vol.
$454,182 Vol.
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
<1%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
<1%
Keine Änderung
96%
Erhöhung
4%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's April 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 6, 2026, 5:23 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's April 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 95.5% implied probability to no change in the Bank Rate at the upcoming April 30 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, backed by the unanimous March decision to hold at 3.75% amid sticky CPI inflation holding at 3.0% year-over-year through February 2026. This positioning reflects the Bank's upward revision of inflation forecasts to 3.5% in Q3 2026, driven by Middle East energy shocks elevating oil prices and persistent services inflation, tempering cut expectations despite labor market softening. Upside risks from wage growth and public inflation expectations further anchor the hold. Realistic challenges include a sharper March CPI drop below consensus or a sustained Middle East ceasefire easing energy pressures, potentially unlocking 25 basis point cut odds, though trader capital shows minimal pricing for shifts ahead of key data releases.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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