Elevated euro-area inflation driven by energy price spikes from Middle East geopolitical tensions has shifted ECB policy expectations toward tightening after the deposit facility rate held at 2.00% in April 2026. Recent staff projections and economist surveys now anticipate at least one 25-basis-point hike in 2026, most likely at the June meeting, with some forecasters pricing in a follow-up move later in the year to limit second-round effects amid resilient labor markets and rising core readings. This outlook underpins the 98.2% implied probability for a rate increase by year-end. A swift conflict de-escalation that sharply reduces energy costs or unexpectedly soft inflation and growth data could still support an unchanged path through December.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertEZB-Zinserhöhung im Jahr 2026?
EZB-Zinserhöhung im Jahr 2026?
Ja
$129,157 Vol.
$129,157 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$129,157 Vol.
$129,157 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated euro-area inflation driven by energy price spikes from Middle East geopolitical tensions has shifted ECB policy expectations toward tightening after the deposit facility rate held at 2.00% in April 2026. Recent staff projections and economist surveys now anticipate at least one 25-basis-point hike in 2026, most likely at the June meeting, with some forecasters pricing in a follow-up move later in the year to limit second-round effects amid resilient labor markets and rising core readings. This outlook underpins the 98.2% implied probability for a rate increase by year-end. A swift conflict de-escalation that sharply reduces energy costs or unexpectedly soft inflation and growth data could still support an unchanged path through December.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Volumen
$129,157Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated euro-area inflation driven by energy price spikes from Middle East geopolitical tensions has shifted ECB policy expectations toward tightening after the deposit facility rate held at 2.00% in April 2026. Recent staff projections and economist surveys now anticipate at least one 25-basis-point hike in 2026, most likely at the June meeting, with some forecasters pricing in a follow-up move later in the year to limit second-round effects amid resilient labor markets and rising core readings. This outlook underpins the 98.2% implied probability for a rate increase by year-end. A swift conflict de-escalation that sharply reduces energy costs or unexpectedly soft inflation and growth data could still support an unchanged path through December.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$129,157Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated euro-area inflation driven by energy price spikes from Middle East geopolitical tensions has shifted ECB policy expectations toward tightening after the deposit facility rate held at 2.00% in April 2026. Recent staff projections and economist surveys now anticipate at least one 25-basis-point hike in 2026, most likely at the June meeting, with some forecasters pricing in a follow-up move later in the year to limit second-round effects amid resilient labor markets and rising core readings. This outlook underpins the 98.2% implied probability for a rate increase by year-end. A swift conflict de-escalation that sharply reduces energy costs or unexpectedly soft inflation and growth data could still support an unchanged path through December.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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