The ECB's June 2026 decision to raise the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%—its first hike in three years—reflects persistent inflationary pressures from elevated energy prices, with staff projections now showing headline inflation averaging 3.0% for the full year. This hawkish shift, followed by a steady hold at the July meeting, underpins the 91.5% market-implied probability against any 2026 rate cut, as traders price in a data-dependent stance focused on returning inflation to the 2% target. Euro area growth forecasts were also revised lower, but labor market resilience and services inflation keep easing off the table. Key upcoming catalysts include the September and October policy meetings, where fresh CPI releases and energy price data could test the current consensus if disinflation accelerates beyond expectations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$30,655 Vol.
$30,655 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$30,655 Vol.
$30,655 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The ECB's June 2026 decision to raise the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%—its first hike in three years—reflects persistent inflationary pressures from elevated energy prices, with staff projections now showing headline inflation averaging 3.0% for the full year. This hawkish shift, followed by a steady hold at the July meeting, underpins the 91.5% market-implied probability against any 2026 rate cut, as traders price in a data-dependent stance focused on returning inflation to the 2% target. Euro area growth forecasts were also revised lower, but labor market resilience and services inflation keep easing off the table. Key upcoming catalysts include the September and October policy meetings, where fresh CPI releases and energy price data could test the current consensus if disinflation accelerates beyond expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Volumen
$30,655Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The ECB's June 2026 decision to raise the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%—its first hike in three years—reflects persistent inflationary pressures from elevated energy prices, with staff projections now showing headline inflation averaging 3.0% for the full year. This hawkish shift, followed by a steady hold at the July meeting, underpins the 91.5% market-implied probability against any 2026 rate cut, as traders price in a data-dependent stance focused on returning inflation to the 2% target. Euro area growth forecasts were also revised lower, but labor market resilience and services inflation keep easing off the table. Key upcoming catalysts include the September and October policy meetings, where fresh CPI releases and energy price data could test the current consensus if disinflation accelerates beyond expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$30,655Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The ECB's June 2026 decision to raise the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%—its first hike in three years—reflects persistent inflationary pressures from elevated energy prices, with staff projections now showing headline inflation averaging 3.0% for the full year. This hawkish shift, followed by a steady hold at the July meeting, underpins the 91.5% market-implied probability against any 2026 rate cut, as traders price in a data-dependent stance focused on returning inflation to the 2% target. Euro area growth forecasts were also revised lower, but labor market resilience and services inflation keep easing off the table. Key upcoming catalysts include the September and October policy meetings, where fresh CPI releases and energy price data could test the current consensus if disinflation accelerates beyond expectations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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