Mount Etna remains in an ongoing eruptive phase that began in late 2022 and continued into 2026 with flank lava flows and intermittent ash emissions, including a new fissure opening on January 1 and renewed activity noted in mid-June. Most recent events have been dominated by effusive rather than strongly explosive behavior, typically registering VEI 0–1 on the Volcanic Explosivity Index. Official monitoring from INGV and the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program shows no confirmed VEI 2+ episode yet this year, supporting the market’s modest lean toward “No.” While Etna’s frequent paroxysmal episodes can escalate quickly, the current pattern of low-to-moderate explosivity and the passage of half the year without a qualifying event keep trader consensus slightly favoring absence of a VEI 2+ eruption through December.