Mount Vesuvius remains at green alert with parameters firmly at background levels through July 2026 monitoring by INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano, including low-energy seismicity (mostly magnitude <1.0 events), no magmatic ground deformation, stable crater temperatures, and a long-term decline in hydrothermal activity. The volcano has been in obstructed-conduit quiescence since its last eruption in 1944, consistent with multi-century recurrence intervals for even modest VEI 1+ events and the absence of precursors such as long-period seismicity or uplift that typically precede renewed activity. With only four months remaining in 2026 and no model consensus or observational shifts indicating magma ascent, trader consensus reflects the low probability of an eruption meeting resolution criteria before year-end. A rapid escalation from an unforeseen seismic swarm could theoretically alter this, though current data make such a development improbable.