Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a daily minimum in the upper 50s °F for San Francisco on September 3, driven by persistent onshore flow, a strengthening marine layer, and increased cloud cover from a weak frontal system bringing light drizzle. These factors suppress radiative cooling overnight while keeping daytime highs near 66–68 °F, close to the long-term September average low of 56 °F. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with limited potential for deeper cooling if marine stratus thickens more than expected or if winds calm under clearer skies. Trader weighting across the 56–63 °F bins reflects this narrow forecast range and typical SF microclimate variability, while elevated odds on sub-50 °F outcomes appear to price in tail-risk model divergence or measurement differences across downtown stations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in San Francisco am 3. September?
Niedrigste Temperatur in San Francisco am 3. September?
49°F or below 77%
58-59°F 51%
52-53°F 49%
64-65°F 49%
NEU
NEU
3. Sep. 2026
49°F or below
77%
50-51°F
48%
52-53°F
49%
54-55°F
43%
56-57°F
27%
58-59°F
29%
60-61°F
29%
62-63°F
24%
64-65°F
49%
66-67°F
1%
68°F or higher
<1%
49°F or below 77%
58-59°F 51%
52-53°F 49%
64-65°F 49%
NEU
NEU
3. Sep. 2026
49°F or below
$62 Vol.
77%
50-51°F
$62 Vol.
48%
52-53°F
$62 Vol.
49%
54-55°F
$136 Vol.
43%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
27%
58-59°F
$18 Vol.
29%
60-61°F
$73 Vol.
29%
62-63°F
$10 Vol.
24%
64-65°F
$62 Vol.
49%
66-67°F
$12 Vol.
1%
68°F or higher
$112 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a daily minimum in the upper 50s °F for San Francisco on September 3, driven by persistent onshore flow, a strengthening marine layer, and increased cloud cover from a weak frontal system bringing light drizzle. These factors suppress radiative cooling overnight while keeping daytime highs near 66–68 °F, close to the long-term September average low of 56 °F. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with limited potential for deeper cooling if marine stratus thickens more than expected or if winds calm under clearer skies. Trader weighting across the 56–63 °F bins reflects this narrow forecast range and typical SF microclimate variability, while elevated odds on sub-50 °F outcomes appear to price in tail-risk model divergence or measurement differences across downtown stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 1, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volumen
$609Enddatum
3. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 1, 2026, 7:29 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a daily minimum in the upper 50s °F for San Francisco on September 3, driven by persistent onshore flow, a strengthening marine layer, and increased cloud cover from a weak frontal system bringing light drizzle. These factors suppress radiative cooling overnight while keeping daytime highs near 66–68 °F, close to the long-term September average low of 56 °F. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with limited potential for deeper cooling if marine stratus thickens more than expected or if winds calm under clearer skies. Trader weighting across the 56–63 °F bins reflects this narrow forecast range and typical SF microclimate variability, while elevated odds on sub-50 °F outcomes appear to price in tail-risk model divergence or measurement differences across downtown stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$609Enddatum
3. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 1, 2026, 7:29 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a daily minimum in the upper 50s °F for San Francisco on September 3, driven by persistent onshore flow, a strengthening marine layer, and increased cloud cover from a weak frontal system bringing light drizzle. These factors suppress radiative cooling overnight while keeping daytime highs near 66–68 °F, close to the long-term September average low of 56 °F. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with limited potential for deeper cooling if marine stratus thickens more than expected or if winds calm under clearer skies. Trader weighting across the 56–63 °F bins reflects this narrow forecast range and typical SF microclimate variability, while elevated odds on sub-50 °F outcomes appear to price in tail-risk model divergence or measurement differences across downtown stations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen