Persistent inflation pressures, with 2026 PCE projections revised higher to around 3.6% and limited progress toward the 2% target, have anchored trader expectations for steady policy through the June, July, and September FOMC meetings under new Chair Kevin Warsh. The Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75% in both June and July, with the June dot plot lifting the median 2026 endpoint to 3.8% and nine officials signaling at least one hike by year-end amid resilient labor data. This data dependence and hawkish tilt explain the 42% market-implied odds on Pause–Pause–Pause and the dominance of Other at 58%, while the negligible 0.6% on Pause–Pause–Cut reflects scant scope for easing. The September 15–16 meeting remains the key near-term catalyst, with incoming CPI and employment releases likely to shape final positioning.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertOther 58%
Pause–Pause–Pause 42%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$823,043 Vol.
$823,043 Vol.
15. Sep. 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
42%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
58%
Other 58%
Pause–Pause–Pause 42%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$823,043 Vol.
$823,043 Vol.
15. Sep. 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$315,348 Vol.
42%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$95,796 Vol.
1%
Other
$356,023 Vol.
58%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation pressures, with 2026 PCE projections revised higher to around 3.6% and limited progress toward the 2% target, have anchored trader expectations for steady policy through the June, July, and September FOMC meetings under new Chair Kevin Warsh. The Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75% in both June and July, with the June dot plot lifting the median 2026 endpoint to 3.8% and nine officials signaling at least one hike by year-end amid resilient labor data. This data dependence and hawkish tilt explain the 42% market-implied odds on Pause–Pause–Pause and the dominance of Other at 58%, while the negligible 0.6% on Pause–Pause–Cut reflects scant scope for easing. The September 15–16 meeting remains the key near-term catalyst, with incoming CPI and employment releases likely to shape final positioning.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Markt eröffnet: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volumen
$823,043Enddatum
16. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation pressures, with 2026 PCE projections revised higher to around 3.6% and limited progress toward the 2% target, have anchored trader expectations for steady policy through the June, July, and September FOMC meetings under new Chair Kevin Warsh. The Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75% in both June and July, with the June dot plot lifting the median 2026 endpoint to 3.8% and nine officials signaling at least one hike by year-end amid resilient labor data. This data dependence and hawkish tilt explain the 42% market-implied odds on Pause–Pause–Pause and the dominance of Other at 58%, while the negligible 0.6% on Pause–Pause–Cut reflects scant scope for easing. The September 15–16 meeting remains the key near-term catalyst, with incoming CPI and employment releases likely to shape final positioning.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$823,043Enddatum
16. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation pressures, with 2026 PCE projections revised higher to around 3.6% and limited progress toward the 2% target, have anchored trader expectations for steady policy through the June, July, and September FOMC meetings under new Chair Kevin Warsh. The Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75% in both June and July, with the June dot plot lifting the median 2026 endpoint to 3.8% and nine officials signaling at least one hike by year-end amid resilient labor data. This data dependence and hawkish tilt explain the 42% market-implied odds on Pause–Pause–Pause and the dominance of Other at 58%, while the negligible 0.6% on Pause–Pause–Cut reflects scant scope for easing. The September 15–16 meeting remains the key near-term catalyst, with incoming CPI and employment releases likely to shape final positioning.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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