Recent hotter-than-expected August CPI data, with core prices rising 0.3% month-over-month and headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year, have elevated concerns about persistent price pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, driving fragmented trader sentiment across rate-path sequences for the September, October, and December FOMC meetings. The federal funds rate has remained at 3.50–3.75% through 2026 amid a 9–3 July hold vote and solid labor conditions, including 4.1% unemployment. The closely matched probabilities reflect uncertainty over whether inflation momentum will prompt one or more 25-basis-point hikes versus pauses, especially with the September 15–16 meeting releasing updated projections and the dot plot. Market-implied odds price in a high likelihood of near-term tightening, tempered by data-dependent risks to the dual mandate.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHike–Pause–Hike 26%
Zinsschritt–Pause–Pause 20%
Anheben–Anheben–Anheben 17%
Hike–Hike–Pause 16%
$26,778 Vol.
$26,778 Vol.
9. Dez. 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
26%
Zinsschritt–Pause–Pause
20%
Anheben–Anheben–Anheben
17%
Hike–Hike–Pause
16%
Pause–Pause–Erhöhung
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause
10%
Pause–Anhebung–Anhebung
4%
Pause–Anhebung–Pause
2%
Sonstiges
7%
Hike–Pause–Hike 26%
Zinsschritt–Pause–Pause 20%
Anheben–Anheben–Anheben 17%
Hike–Hike–Pause 16%
$26,778 Vol.
$26,778 Vol.
9. Dez. 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
$1,835 Vol.
26%
Zinsschritt–Pause–Pause
$1,765 Vol.
20%
Anheben–Anheben–Anheben
$1,776 Vol.
17%
Hike–Hike–Pause
$1,769 Vol.
16%
Pause–Pause–Erhöhung
$1,604 Vol.
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$14,765 Vol.
10%
Pause–Anhebung–Anhebung
$1,300 Vol.
4%
Pause–Anhebung–Pause
$1,572 Vol.
2%
Sonstiges
$391 Vol.
7%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent hotter-than-expected August CPI data, with core prices rising 0.3% month-over-month and headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year, have elevated concerns about persistent price pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, driving fragmented trader sentiment across rate-path sequences for the September, October, and December FOMC meetings. The federal funds rate has remained at 3.50–3.75% through 2026 amid a 9–3 July hold vote and solid labor conditions, including 4.1% unemployment. The closely matched probabilities reflect uncertainty over whether inflation momentum will prompt one or more 25-basis-point hikes versus pauses, especially with the September 15–16 meeting releasing updated projections and the dot plot. Market-implied odds price in a high likelihood of near-term tightening, tempered by data-dependent risks to the dual mandate.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Markt eröffnet: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Volumen
$26,778Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent hotter-than-expected August CPI data, with core prices rising 0.3% month-over-month and headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year, have elevated concerns about persistent price pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, driving fragmented trader sentiment across rate-path sequences for the September, October, and December FOMC meetings. The federal funds rate has remained at 3.50–3.75% through 2026 amid a 9–3 July hold vote and solid labor conditions, including 4.1% unemployment. The closely matched probabilities reflect uncertainty over whether inflation momentum will prompt one or more 25-basis-point hikes versus pauses, especially with the September 15–16 meeting releasing updated projections and the dot plot. Market-implied odds price in a high likelihood of near-term tightening, tempered by data-dependent risks to the dual mandate.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$26,778Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent hotter-than-expected August CPI data, with core prices rising 0.3% month-over-month and headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year, have elevated concerns about persistent price pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, driving fragmented trader sentiment across rate-path sequences for the September, October, and December FOMC meetings. The federal funds rate has remained at 3.50–3.75% through 2026 amid a 9–3 July hold vote and solid labor conditions, including 4.1% unemployment. The closely matched probabilities reflect uncertainty over whether inflation momentum will prompt one or more 25-basis-point hikes versus pauses, especially with the September 15–16 meeting releasing updated projections and the dot plot. Market-implied odds price in a high likelihood of near-term tightening, tempered by data-dependent risks to the dual mandate.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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