Following the record-tying 92°F high at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport on April 1 amid the hottest March on record, trader consensus on Polymarket has shifted to favor mid-70s outcomes, with 74-75°F leading at 34.5% implied probability, driven by a pattern change introducing persistent stratus clouds, scattered showers, and breezy southeast winds around 10 mph per latest National Weather Service guidance. This setup limits solar insolation and enhances boundary-layer mixing, potentially capping highs below the April normal of 78°F despite some model runs like GFS hinting at partial clearing for 80s. High uncertainty across the distribution stems from divergent ECMWF and GFS ensembles on cloud deck persistence and convective timing; new 12Z model updates and afternoon observations could refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Austin on April 4?
Highest temperature in Austin on April 4?
74-75°F 35%
76-77°F 23%
72-73°F 20%
78-79°F 10%
$15,894 Vol.
$15,894 Vol.
4. Apr. 2026
71°F or below
9%
72-73°F
20%
74-75°F
35%
76-77°F
23%
78-79°F
10%
80-81°F
6%
82-83°F
4%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
<1%
90°F or higher
<1%
74-75°F 35%
76-77°F 23%
72-73°F 20%
78-79°F 10%
$15,894 Vol.
$15,894 Vol.
4. Apr. 2026
71°F or below
$465 Vol.
9%
72-73°F
$735 Vol.
20%
74-75°F
$1,041 Vol.
35%
76-77°F
$976 Vol.
23%
78-79°F
$631 Vol.
10%
80-81°F
$569 Vol.
6%
82-83°F
$1,053 Vol.
4%
84-85°F
$2,718 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$2,985 Vol.
<1%
88-89°F
$2,214 Vol.
<1%
90°F or higher
$2,508 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Following the record-tying 92°F high at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport on April 1 amid the hottest March on record, trader consensus on Polymarket has shifted to favor mid-70s outcomes, with 74-75°F leading at 34.5% implied probability, driven by a pattern change introducing persistent stratus clouds, scattered showers, and breezy southeast winds around 10 mph per latest National Weather Service guidance. This setup limits solar insolation and enhances boundary-layer mixing, potentially capping highs below the April normal of 78°F despite some model runs like GFS hinting at partial clearing for 80s. High uncertainty across the distribution stems from divergent ECMWF and GFS ensembles on cloud deck persistence and convective timing; new 12Z model updates and afternoon observations could refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 29, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Volumen
$15,894Enddatum
4. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 29, 2026, 3:03 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Following the record-tying 92°F high at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport on April 1 amid the hottest March on record, trader consensus on Polymarket has shifted to favor mid-70s outcomes, with 74-75°F leading at 34.5% implied probability, driven by a pattern change introducing persistent stratus clouds, scattered showers, and breezy southeast winds around 10 mph per latest National Weather Service guidance. This setup limits solar insolation and enhances boundary-layer mixing, potentially capping highs below the April normal of 78°F despite some model runs like GFS hinting at partial clearing for 80s. High uncertainty across the distribution stems from divergent ECMWF and GFS ensembles on cloud deck persistence and convective timing; new 12Z model updates and afternoon observations could refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$15,894Enddatum
4. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 29, 2026, 3:03 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Following the record-tying 92°F high at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport on April 1 amid the hottest March on record, trader consensus on Polymarket has shifted to favor mid-70s outcomes, with 74-75°F leading at 34.5% implied probability, driven by a pattern change introducing persistent stratus clouds, scattered showers, and breezy southeast winds around 10 mph per latest National Weather Service guidance. This setup limits solar insolation and enhances boundary-layer mixing, potentially capping highs below the April normal of 78°F despite some model runs like GFS hinting at partial clearing for 80s. High uncertainty across the distribution stems from divergent ECMWF and GFS ensembles on cloud deck persistence and convective timing; new 12Z model updates and afternoon observations could refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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