**Trader sentiment for Chicago’s August 7 high temperature centers on mid-80s readings, with 84-85°F holding the largest share (45.5%) and 86-87°F next (27.5%).** These odds align with the latest official and private forecasts showing a daytime high near 85°F under partly sunny, humid conditions. National Weather Service normals place the August 7 average high at 83.5°F, while recent AccuWeather guidance explicitly calls for 85°F with a RealFeel near 95°F due to elevated dew points. Earlier this week, highs remained in the mid-to-upper 70s amid cloud cover and modest onshore flow from Lake Michigan; the shift to clearer skies and southerly flow has allowed temperatures to climb toward seasonal or slightly above-normal levels. Model consensus and observed warming trends explain why outcomes above 88°F remain low-probability (under 5% combined), while sub-82°F readings have been discounted as the warmer air mass arrives. With the peak expected during the afternoon heating window, traders are weighting the most recent guidance and climatological baselines heavily in the current market-implied distribution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Chicago am 7. August?
Höchste Temperatur in Chicago am 7. August?
84-85°F 50%
86-87°F 26%
82-83°F 22%
88-89°F 4%
NEU
$11,772 Vol.
NEU
$11,772 Vol.
7. Aug. 2026
75°F oder weniger
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
3%
82-83°F
22%
84-85°F
50%
86-87°F
26%
88-89°F
4%
90–91°F
1%
92-93°F
1%
94°F oder höher
<1%
84-85°F 50%
86-87°F 26%
82-83°F 22%
88-89°F 4%
NEU
$11,772 Vol.
NEU
$11,772 Vol.
7. Aug. 2026
75°F oder weniger
$1,624 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$925 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$313 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$395 Vol.
3%
82-83°F
$1,875 Vol.
22%
84-85°F
$1,274 Vol.
50%
86-87°F
$1,389 Vol.
26%
88-89°F
$762 Vol.
4%
90–91°F
$1,670 Vol.
1%
92-93°F
$292 Vol.
1%
94°F oder höher
$1,252 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Chicago’s August 7 high temperature centers on mid-80s readings, with 84-85°F holding the largest share (45.5%) and 86-87°F next (27.5%).** These odds align with the latest official and private forecasts showing a daytime high near 85°F under partly sunny, humid conditions.
National Weather Service normals place the August 7 average high at 83.5°F, while recent AccuWeather guidance explicitly calls for 85°F with a RealFeel near 95°F due to elevated dew points. Earlier this week, highs remained in the mid-to-upper 70s amid cloud cover and modest onshore flow from Lake Michigan; the shift to clearer skies and southerly flow has allowed temperatures to climb toward seasonal or slightly above-normal levels.
Model consensus and observed warming trends explain why outcomes above 88°F remain low-probability (under 5% combined), while sub-82°F readings have been discounted as the warmer air mass arrives. With the peak expected during the afternoon heating window, traders are weighting the most recent guidance and climatological baselines heavily in the current market-implied distribution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 5, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volumen
$11,772Enddatum
7. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 5, 2026, 9:02 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Chicago’s August 7 high temperature centers on mid-80s readings, with 84-85°F holding the largest share (45.5%) and 86-87°F next (27.5%).** These odds align with the latest official and private forecasts showing a daytime high near 85°F under partly sunny, humid conditions.
National Weather Service normals place the August 7 average high at 83.5°F, while recent AccuWeather guidance explicitly calls for 85°F with a RealFeel near 95°F due to elevated dew points. Earlier this week, highs remained in the mid-to-upper 70s amid cloud cover and modest onshore flow from Lake Michigan; the shift to clearer skies and southerly flow has allowed temperatures to climb toward seasonal or slightly above-normal levels.
Model consensus and observed warming trends explain why outcomes above 88°F remain low-probability (under 5% combined), while sub-82°F readings have been discounted as the warmer air mass arrives. With the peak expected during the afternoon heating window, traders are weighting the most recent guidance and climatological baselines heavily in the current market-implied distribution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$11,772Enddatum
7. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 5, 2026, 9:02 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for Chicago’s August 7 high temperature centers on mid-80s readings, with 84-85°F holding the largest share (45.5%) and 86-87°F next (27.5%).** These odds align with the latest official and private forecasts showing a daytime high near 85°F under partly sunny, humid conditions. National Weather Service normals place the August 7 average high at 83.5°F, while recent AccuWeather guidance explicitly calls for 85°F with a RealFeel near 95°F due to elevated dew points. Earlier this week, highs remained in the mid-to-upper 70s amid cloud cover and modest onshore flow from Lake Michigan; the shift to clearer skies and southerly flow has allowed temperatures to climb toward seasonal or slightly above-normal levels. Model consensus and observed warming trends explain why outcomes above 88°F remain low-probability (under 5% combined), while sub-82°F readings have been discounted as the warmer air mass arrives. With the peak expected during the afternoon heating window, traders are weighting the most recent guidance and climatological baselines heavily in the current market-implied distribution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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