India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast of a 39°C maximum temperature for Lucknow on April 15 under clear skies anchors trader consensus, with market-implied odds tightly split at 34% for 39°C and 35% for 40°C, reflecting uncertainty in peak afternoon heating. Sustained solar insolation, low humidity around 40%, and northwesterly winds promote rapid daytime warming from morning lows near 22°C, while subsidence aloft limits cloud formation; however, urban heat island effects in Lucknow could nudge readings toward 40°C, as seen in recent days' slight forecast overruns (e.g., April 14 peaked at 38°C). Lower probabilities for 41°C (12.5%) stem from absent intensification signals in model ensembles. Hourly IMD observations through late afternoon will resolve exact peak, with dry conditions statewide minimizing cooling disruptions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Lucknow on April 15?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on April 15?
40°C 43%
39°C 34%
41°C 13%
38°C 6%
$33,243 Vol.
$33,243 Vol.
37°C or below
1%
38°C
6%
39°C
34%
40°C
43%
41°C
13%
42°C
3%
43°C
1%
44°C
<1%
45°C
<1%
46°C
<1%
47°C or higher
<1%
40°C 43%
39°C 34%
41°C 13%
38°C 6%
$33,243 Vol.
$33,243 Vol.
37°C or below
1%
38°C
6%
39°C
34%
40°C
43%
41°C
13%
42°C
3%
43°C
1%
44°C
<1%
45°C
<1%
46°C
<1%
47°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 13, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast of a 39°C maximum temperature for Lucknow on April 15 under clear skies anchors trader consensus, with market-implied odds tightly split at 34% for 39°C and 35% for 40°C, reflecting uncertainty in peak afternoon heating. Sustained solar insolation, low humidity around 40%, and northwesterly winds promote rapid daytime warming from morning lows near 22°C, while subsidence aloft limits cloud formation; however, urban heat island effects in Lucknow could nudge readings toward 40°C, as seen in recent days' slight forecast overruns (e.g., April 14 peaked at 38°C). Lower probabilities for 41°C (12.5%) stem from absent intensification signals in model ensembles. Hourly IMD observations through late afternoon will resolve exact peak, with dry conditions statewide minimizing cooling disruptions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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