Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a highest temperature of 12°C at 28% implied probability for Moscow on April 17, closely trailed by 13°C (21%) and 11°C (15%), reflecting the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts centering on 11–14°C amid high uncertainty in upper-air patterns. Following a recent cold snap with April 10 highs near 4°C, gradual warming has pushed early-week peaks to 16–17°C, but incoming cloud cover and potential northerly winds ahead of a weekend chill are tempering expectations, per Russian meteorological updates. Differentiating factors include cloud opacity reducing solar insolation—favoring 11°C under overcast skies versus 13–14°C with partial clearing—and shower timing, which could suppress peak heating. New model runs and hourly observations from Moscow stations will refine odds before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Moscow on April 17?
Highest temperature in Moscow on April 17?
12°C 35%
13°C 28%
11°C 17%
14°C 13%
NEU
$12,402 Vol.
NEU
$12,402 Vol.
17. Apr. 2026
7°C or below
1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
2%
10°C
7%
11°C
17%
12°C
29%
13°C
22%
14°C
13%
15°C
4%
16°C
2%
17°C or higher
1%
12°C 35%
13°C 28%
11°C 17%
14°C 13%
NEU
$12,402 Vol.
NEU
$12,402 Vol.
17. Apr. 2026
7°C or below
$1,426 Vol.
1%
8°C
$1,604 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$528 Vol.
2%
10°C
$320 Vol.
7%
11°C
$131 Vol.
17%
12°C
$133 Vol.
29%
13°C
$202 Vol.
22%
14°C
$331 Vol.
13%
15°C
$1,859 Vol.
4%
16°C
$2,387 Vol.
2%
17°C or higher
$3,482 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a highest temperature of 12°C at 28% implied probability for Moscow on April 17, closely trailed by 13°C (21%) and 11°C (15%), reflecting the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts centering on 11–14°C amid high uncertainty in upper-air patterns. Following a recent cold snap with April 10 highs near 4°C, gradual warming has pushed early-week peaks to 16–17°C, but incoming cloud cover and potential northerly winds ahead of a weekend chill are tempering expectations, per Russian meteorological updates. Differentiating factors include cloud opacity reducing solar insolation—favoring 11°C under overcast skies versus 13–14°C with partial clearing—and shower timing, which could suppress peak heating. New model runs and hourly observations from Moscow stations will refine odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 15, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
Volumen
$12,402Enddatum
17. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 15, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a highest temperature of 12°C at 28% implied probability for Moscow on April 17, closely trailed by 13°C (21%) and 11°C (15%), reflecting the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts centering on 11–14°C amid high uncertainty in upper-air patterns. Following a recent cold snap with April 10 highs near 4°C, gradual warming has pushed early-week peaks to 16–17°C, but incoming cloud cover and potential northerly winds ahead of a weekend chill are tempering expectations, per Russian meteorological updates. Differentiating factors include cloud opacity reducing solar insolation—favoring 11°C under overcast skies versus 13–14°C with partial clearing—and shower timing, which could suppress peak heating. New model runs and hourly observations from Moscow stations will refine odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$12,402Enddatum
17. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 15, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a highest temperature of 12°C at 28% implied probability for Moscow on April 17, closely trailed by 13°C (21%) and 11°C (15%), reflecting the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts centering on 11–14°C amid high uncertainty in upper-air patterns. Following a recent cold snap with April 10 highs near 4°C, gradual warming has pushed early-week peaks to 16–17°C, but incoming cloud cover and potential northerly winds ahead of a weekend chill are tempering expectations, per Russian meteorological updates. Differentiating factors include cloud opacity reducing solar insolation—favoring 11°C under overcast skies versus 13–14°C with partial clearing—and shower timing, which could suppress peak heating. New model runs and hourly observations from Moscow stations will refine odds before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen