Current National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for August 11 points to a Central Park high near or slightly above 90 °F, driven by warm advection under mostly sunny skies, light winds, and above-average mid-level temperatures amid a broader warmer-than-normal August pattern. This setup exceeds the 1991–2020 average high of 83 °F while remaining below extreme heat thresholds, consistent with trader consensus favoring the 88–93 °F bins that together exceed 50 % implied probability. Sea-breeze moderation near coastal stations and any late-day convection introduce modest downside risk to the exact peak, while the absence of strong cold fronts or cloud cover supports the current market tilt. Updated NWS point forecasts and model runs tomorrow morning will provide the final inputs ahead of market resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in NYC am 11. August?
Höchste Temperatur in NYC am 11. August?
90-91°F 40%
88-89°F 29%
92-93°F 21%
30-31°C 7%
NEU
NEU
11. Aug. 2026
83°F oder niedriger
1%
84-85°F
1%
30-31°C
7%
88-89°F
29%
90-91°F
40%
92-93°F
21%
94-95°F
6%
96-97°F
2%
98-99°F
4%
100-101°F
1%
102°F oder höher
<1%
90-91°F 40%
88-89°F 29%
92-93°F 21%
30-31°C 7%
NEU
NEU
11. Aug. 2026
83°F oder niedriger
$101 Vol.
1%
84-85°F
$106 Vol.
1%
30-31°C
$204 Vol.
7%
88-89°F
$84 Vol.
29%
90-91°F
$126 Vol.
40%
92-93°F
$106 Vol.
21%
94-95°F
$190 Vol.
6%
96-97°F
$44 Vol.
2%
98-99°F
$22 Vol.
4%
100-101°F
$74 Vol.
1%
102°F oder höher
$86 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for August 11 points to a Central Park high near or slightly above 90 °F, driven by warm advection under mostly sunny skies, light winds, and above-average mid-level temperatures amid a broader warmer-than-normal August pattern. This setup exceeds the 1991–2020 average high of 83 °F while remaining below extreme heat thresholds, consistent with trader consensus favoring the 88–93 °F bins that together exceed 50 % implied probability. Sea-breeze moderation near coastal stations and any late-day convection introduce modest downside risk to the exact peak, while the absence of strong cold fronts or cloud cover supports the current market tilt. Updated NWS point forecasts and model runs tomorrow morning will provide the final inputs ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 9, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volumen
$1,143Enddatum
11. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 9, 2026, 9:03 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for August 11 points to a Central Park high near or slightly above 90 °F, driven by warm advection under mostly sunny skies, light winds, and above-average mid-level temperatures amid a broader warmer-than-normal August pattern. This setup exceeds the 1991–2020 average high of 83 °F while remaining below extreme heat thresholds, consistent with trader consensus favoring the 88–93 °F bins that together exceed 50 % implied probability. Sea-breeze moderation near coastal stations and any late-day convection introduce modest downside risk to the exact peak, while the absence of strong cold fronts or cloud cover supports the current market tilt. Updated NWS point forecasts and model runs tomorrow morning will provide the final inputs ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$1,143Enddatum
11. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 9, 2026, 9:03 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for August 11 points to a Central Park high near or slightly above 90 °F, driven by warm advection under mostly sunny skies, light winds, and above-average mid-level temperatures amid a broader warmer-than-normal August pattern. This setup exceeds the 1991–2020 average high of 83 °F while remaining below extreme heat thresholds, consistent with trader consensus favoring the 88–93 °F bins that together exceed 50 % implied probability. Sea-breeze moderation near coastal stations and any late-day convection introduce modest downside risk to the exact peak, while the absence of strong cold fronts or cloud cover supports the current market tilt. Updated NWS point forecasts and model runs tomorrow morning will provide the final inputs ahead of market resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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