Latest Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble models from ECMWF and GFS drive trader consensus toward a Tokyo high of 13°C on March 25, with 31.5% implied odds, edging out 12°C at 28%. This reflects a mild southerly airflow and urban heat island amplification over Tokyo's concrete expanse, against a March climatological average of 12.5–13.5°C. Tight clustering around 12–14°C stems from model spread on afternoon cloud cover and peak insolation timing—clearer skies could push 14–15°C (22.5–17.5% odds), while increasing marine layer risks might cap at 11–12°C. Recent observations show overnight lows near 8°C, setting up diurnal swings of 4–6°C, with no extreme signals differentiating outliers like 17°C+ (16.5%). Traders eye JMA's evening update for resolution shifts.