**Persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and moderate southwesterly winds are keeping overnight temperatures in Amsterdam mild and narrowly clustered.** On August 29, 2026, official forecasts and hourly guidance from sources including the Met Office and European models indicate the daily minimum will most likely fall between 16–17 °C, with limited radiative cooling under a moist, overcast maritime air mass advected from the Atlantic. Dew points near 14–16 °C and wind speeds of 15–25 km/h further suppress the diurnal range, preventing sharper drops that would occur under clear, calm conditions. The closely matched market probabilities for 15 °C (30 %), 16 °C (27 %), and 17 °C (26 %) reflect small differences in model timing of any brief wind lull or partial clearing, as well as the distinction between airport (Schiphol) observations and urban readings. Earlier in August, cooler nights reached the low teens when clearer skies allowed more heat loss; the current unsettled pattern has shifted the distribution upward. Traders are therefore weighting the latest short-range guidance heavily, with the outcome hinging on whether the minimum registers just above or below 16 °C before daytime warming begins.