Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts point to a persistent high-pressure ridge over western Europe that is limiting nocturnal cooling and supporting elevated minimum temperatures across the Netherlands. This setup underpins the market’s leading 47.5% implied probability for an 18°C or higher low on September 17, well above the 11–13°C climatological average for mid-September in Amsterdam. Limited cold-air advection from the North Sea and weak winds are the dominant factors keeping overnight readings mild. Shorter-range guidance from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute will be watched closely over the next 48 hours for any adjustments to the temperature profile. Sub-10°C outcomes remain improbable given current model consensus.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in Amsterdam am 17. September?
18°C oder höher 84%
14°C 39%
17°C 36%
9°C 33%
8°C oder weniger
2%
9°C
33%
10°C
33%
11°C
21%
12°C
23%
13°C
30%
14°C
39%
15°C
33%
16°C
33%
17°C
36%
18°C oder höher
84%
18°C oder höher 84%
14°C 39%
17°C 36%
9°C 33%
8°C oder weniger
2%
9°C
33%
10°C
33%
11°C
21%
12°C
23%
13°C
30%
14°C
39%
15°C
33%
16°C
33%
17°C
36%
18°C oder höher
84%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 15, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts point to a persistent high-pressure ridge over western Europe that is limiting nocturnal cooling and supporting elevated minimum temperatures across the Netherlands. This setup underpins the market’s leading 47.5% implied probability for an 18°C or higher low on September 17, well above the 11–13°C climatological average for mid-September in Amsterdam. Limited cold-air advection from the North Sea and weak winds are the dominant factors keeping overnight readings mild. Shorter-range guidance from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute will be watched closely over the next 48 hours for any adjustments to the temperature profile. Sub-10°C outcomes remain improbable given current model consensus.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen