**Recent official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory position 25°C or 26°C as the most likely overnight minimum on September 4, aligning closely with current market-implied probabilities.** Persistent northwest to north winds of 4–5 (locally 6) associated with the remnants of tropical cyclone Shantel/Sadler have maintained a flow of relatively drier continental air, supporting partly cloudy to cloudy conditions with scattered showers that limit radiative cooling while preventing strong daytime heating. Model consensus and HKO guidance indicate a daily temperature range of roughly 25–29°C or 26–30°C for the day, with the lowest readings expected in the early morning hours under continued cloud cover and moderate humidity (70–95%). These conditions reflect typical early-September climatology for Hong Kong, where overnight lows commonly settle near 25–26°C absent a stronger cold surge or clear, calm night. Recent observations on September 3 showed minima around 25–26°C amid similar northwest flow, reinforcing trader confidence in a comparable outcome for the following night. Key upcoming data releases include the next HKO forecast updates and final observational readings, which will determine market resolution; any shift toward clearer skies or stronger northerly flow could nudge the minimum slightly lower toward 24°C, while increased moisture or calmer conditions would favor the upper end of the 25–26°C range.