Recent ensemble forecasts from NOAA and ECMWF indicate a minimum temperature in Munich on September 20 likely between 8–12 °C, driven by clear to partly cloudy skies, light westerly winds under 10 km/h, and radiative cooling overnight beneath a high-pressure ridge. Model consensus places the most probable range near the climatological average low of 9.5 °C, with slight variations in boundary-layer moisture and cloud cover creating the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 8–10 °C. Warmer outcomes above 12 °C carry low odds due to limited warm-air advection, while sub-7 °C scenarios remain unlikely absent unexpected clear-sky intensification or measurement-site specifics. Updated model runs and official DWD briefings tomorrow morning will refine the exact threshold for market resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in München am 20. September?
12°C 39%
13°C 39%
8°C 24%
10°C 21%
6°C oder weniger
7%
7°C
18%
8°C
24%
9°C
21%
10°C
21%
11°C
21%
12°C
39%
13°C
39%
14°C
13%
15°C
13%
16°C oder höher
2%
12°C 39%
13°C 39%
8°C 24%
10°C 21%
6°C oder weniger
7%
7°C
18%
8°C
24%
9°C
21%
10°C
21%
11°C
21%
12°C
39%
13°C
39%
14°C
13%
15°C
13%
16°C oder höher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from NOAA and ECMWF indicate a minimum temperature in Munich on September 20 likely between 8–12 °C, driven by clear to partly cloudy skies, light westerly winds under 10 km/h, and radiative cooling overnight beneath a high-pressure ridge. Model consensus places the most probable range near the climatological average low of 9.5 °C, with slight variations in boundary-layer moisture and cloud cover creating the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 8–10 °C. Warmer outcomes above 12 °C carry low odds due to limited warm-air advection, while sub-7 °C scenarios remain unlikely absent unexpected clear-sky intensification or measurement-site specifics. Updated model runs and official DWD briefings tomorrow morning will refine the exact threshold for market resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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