**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature (overnight minimum) in NYC on August 13, 2026, centers on 70–75°F bins, which together exceed 70% implied probability, reflecting consensus around typical late-summer nocturnal conditions.** National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance indicate a warm, humid pattern with highs near 85–87°F and overnight lows in the low-to-mid 70s, supported by recent observations of 70–76°F minima. Possible scattered showers or thunderstorms introduce minor cooling variability through cloud cover that limits radiational cooling, while urban heat island effects and proximity to the Atlantic moderate extremes. The close spread among the top three outcomes (74–75°F at 27.5%, 72–73°F at 24.5%, 70–71°F at 20.0%) stems from forecast uncertainty in exact dew points, wind speeds, and precipitation timing, which can shift the minimum by a few degrees. This aligns with climatological August lows averaging ~70°F and the broader seasonal signal favoring above-normal warmth without disruptive cold-air advection. Updated model runs ahead of the overnight period will be the key catalyst for any shifts.