Latest forecast models indicate a minimum temperature of 11–13°C in Warsaw on September 16 under mostly clear skies and southerly winds, aligning with climatological norms for mid-September. This consensus from sources such as GFS and local analyses drives elevated implied probabilities for the 9–15°C range, as recent model runs show limited overnight cooling potential amid stable high pressure. The leading 16°C-or-higher outcome at 49% reflects residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and any last-minute warm advection, while the low 8% probability for 6°C or below underscores the unlikelihood of strong radiational cooling or northerly shifts. Updated model guidance expected within 24 hours could further refine these market-implied odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in Warschau am 16. September?
Niedrigste Temperatur in Warschau am 16. September?
6°C oder niedriger 93%
16°C oder höher 93%
7°C 40%
8°C 40%
NEU
NEU
16. Sep. 2026
6°C oder niedriger
93%
7°C
40%
8°C
40%
9°C
40%
10°C
40%
11°C
22%
12°C
22%
13°C
40%
14°C
39%
15°C
40%
16°C oder höher
93%
6°C oder niedriger 93%
16°C oder höher 93%
7°C 40%
8°C 40%
NEU
NEU
16. Sep. 2026
6°C oder niedriger
$0 Vol.
93%
7°C
$0 Vol.
40%
8°C
$0 Vol.
40%
9°C
$0 Vol.
40%
10°C
$0 Vol.
40%
11°C
$0 Vol.
22%
12°C
$0 Vol.
22%
13°C
$0 Vol.
40%
14°C
$50 Vol.
39%
15°C
$0 Vol.
40%
16°C oder höher
$0 Vol.
93%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest forecast models indicate a minimum temperature of 11–13°C in Warsaw on September 16 under mostly clear skies and southerly winds, aligning with climatological norms for mid-September. This consensus from sources such as GFS and local analyses drives elevated implied probabilities for the 9–15°C range, as recent model runs show limited overnight cooling potential amid stable high pressure. The leading 16°C-or-higher outcome at 49% reflects residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and any last-minute warm advection, while the low 8% probability for 6°C or below underscores the unlikelihood of strong radiational cooling or northerly shifts. Updated model guidance expected within 24 hours could further refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$50Enddatum
16. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest forecast models indicate a minimum temperature of 11–13°C in Warsaw on September 16 under mostly clear skies and southerly winds, aligning with climatological norms for mid-September. This consensus from sources such as GFS and local analyses drives elevated implied probabilities for the 9–15°C range, as recent model runs show limited overnight cooling potential amid stable high pressure. The leading 16°C-or-higher outcome at 49% reflects residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and any last-minute warm advection, while the low 8% probability for 6°C or below underscores the unlikelihood of strong radiational cooling or northerly shifts. Updated model guidance expected within 24 hours could further refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$50Enddatum
16. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Latest forecast models indicate a minimum temperature of 11–13°C in Warsaw on September 16 under mostly clear skies and southerly winds, aligning with climatological norms for mid-September. This consensus from sources such as GFS and local analyses drives elevated implied probabilities for the 9–15°C range, as recent model runs show limited overnight cooling potential amid stable high pressure. The leading 16°C-or-higher outcome at 49% reflects residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and any last-minute warm advection, while the low 8% probability for 6°C or below underscores the unlikelihood of strong radiational cooling or northerly shifts. Updated model guidance expected within 24 hours could further refine these market-implied odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen