**Uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling and air mass advection is driving the near-even market odds between a sub-7°C minimum and one at or above 17°C for Warsaw on September 15.** Current GFS and ECMWF guidance show a mild, mostly cloudy pattern with daytime highs near 18–20°C and forecast lows clustering around 11–13°C, consistent with historical mid-September norms of roughly 10–12°C. Key variables include the degree of cloud cover that limits nocturnal heat loss, wind speeds modulating boundary-layer mixing, and any residual influence from the earlier European heat dome versus incoming Atlantic flow. Clearer skies or lighter winds could allow stronger cooling toward single digits, while persistent cloud or southerly advection would hold minima higher. New model runs and observational updates over the next 48 hours will likely resolve the tight spread between these outcomes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in Warschau am 15. September?
Niedrigste Temperatur in Warschau am 15. September?
17°C oder höher 90%
7°C oder darunter 89%
8°C 39%
15°C 39%
NEU
NEU
15. Sep. 2026
7°C oder darunter
89%
8°C
39%
9°C
21%
10°C
21%
11°C
22%
12°C
21%
13°C
21%
14°C
21%
15°C
39%
16°C
39%
17°C oder höher
90%
17°C oder höher 90%
7°C oder darunter 89%
8°C 39%
15°C 39%
NEU
NEU
15. Sep. 2026
7°C oder darunter
$67 Vol.
89%
8°C
$10 Vol.
39%
9°C
$0 Vol.
21%
10°C
$0 Vol.
21%
11°C
$0 Vol.
22%
12°C
$0 Vol.
21%
13°C
$0 Vol.
21%
14°C
$0 Vol.
21%
15°C
$10 Vol.
39%
16°C
$10 Vol.
39%
17°C oder höher
$10 Vol.
90%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling and air mass advection is driving the near-even market odds between a sub-7°C minimum and one at or above 17°C for Warsaw on September 15.** Current GFS and ECMWF guidance show a mild, mostly cloudy pattern with daytime highs near 18–20°C and forecast lows clustering around 11–13°C, consistent with historical mid-September norms of roughly 10–12°C. Key variables include the degree of cloud cover that limits nocturnal heat loss, wind speeds modulating boundary-layer mixing, and any residual influence from the earlier European heat dome versus incoming Atlantic flow. Clearer skies or lighter winds could allow stronger cooling toward single digits, while persistent cloud or southerly advection would hold minima higher. New model runs and observational updates over the next 48 hours will likely resolve the tight spread between these outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ET
Volumen
$107Enddatum
15. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling and air mass advection is driving the near-even market odds between a sub-7°C minimum and one at or above 17°C for Warsaw on September 15.** Current GFS and ECMWF guidance show a mild, mostly cloudy pattern with daytime highs near 18–20°C and forecast lows clustering around 11–13°C, consistent with historical mid-September norms of roughly 10–12°C. Key variables include the degree of cloud cover that limits nocturnal heat loss, wind speeds modulating boundary-layer mixing, and any residual influence from the earlier European heat dome versus incoming Atlantic flow. Clearer skies or lighter winds could allow stronger cooling toward single digits, while persistent cloud or southerly advection would hold minima higher. New model runs and observational updates over the next 48 hours will likely resolve the tight spread between these outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$107Enddatum
15. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...**Uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling and air mass advection is driving the near-even market odds between a sub-7°C minimum and one at or above 17°C for Warsaw on September 15.** Current GFS and ECMWF guidance show a mild, mostly cloudy pattern with daytime highs near 18–20°C and forecast lows clustering around 11–13°C, consistent with historical mid-September norms of roughly 10–12°C. Key variables include the degree of cloud cover that limits nocturnal heat loss, wind speeds modulating boundary-layer mixing, and any residual influence from the earlier European heat dome versus incoming Atlantic flow. Clearer skies or lighter winds could allow stronger cooling toward single digits, while persistent cloud or southerly advection would hold minima higher. New model runs and observational updates over the next 48 hours will likely resolve the tight spread between these outcomes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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