Democratic incumbent Pat Ryan holds a clear edge in New York’s 18th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, consistent with trader pricing that assigns the Democratic Party a 61 percent implied probability versus 12 percent for Republicans. The seat carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+2, and nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify it as Solid or Safe Democratic. Ryan’s prior reelection margin exceeded 14 points, primaries for both parties were canceled ahead of the June 23 date, and the lone Republican nominee has drawn limited visibility or fundraising. A February poll showed the Democratic candidate ahead by seven points. These structural and campaign factors underpin the current market consensus.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNY-18 Wahlsieger
NY-18 Wahlsieger
$33,316 Vol.
$33,316 Vol.
4. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
60%
Republikanische Partei
13%
$33,316 Vol.
$33,316 Vol.
4. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
$32,013 Vol.
60%
Republikanische Partei
$1,303 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Pat Ryan holds a clear edge in New York’s 18th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, consistent with trader pricing that assigns the Democratic Party a 61 percent implied probability versus 12 percent for Republicans. The seat carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+2, and nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify it as Solid or Safe Democratic. Ryan’s prior reelection margin exceeded 14 points, primaries for both parties were canceled ahead of the June 23 date, and the lone Republican nominee has drawn limited visibility or fundraising. A February poll showed the Democratic candidate ahead by seven points. These structural and campaign factors underpin the current market consensus.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Volumen
$33,316Enddatum
4. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Pat Ryan holds a clear edge in New York’s 18th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, consistent with trader pricing that assigns the Democratic Party a 61 percent implied probability versus 12 percent for Republicans. The seat carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+2, and nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify it as Solid or Safe Democratic. Ryan’s prior reelection margin exceeded 14 points, primaries for both parties were canceled ahead of the June 23 date, and the lone Republican nominee has drawn limited visibility or fundraising. A February poll showed the Democratic candidate ahead by seven points. These structural and campaign factors underpin the current market consensus.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$33,316Enddatum
4. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Pat Ryan holds a clear edge in New York’s 18th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, consistent with trader pricing that assigns the Democratic Party a 61 percent implied probability versus 12 percent for Republicans. The seat carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+2, and nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify it as Solid or Safe Democratic. Ryan’s prior reelection margin exceeded 14 points, primaries for both parties were canceled ahead of the June 23 date, and the lone Republican nominee has drawn limited visibility or fundraising. A February poll showed the Democratic candidate ahead by seven points. These structural and campaign factors underpin the current market consensus.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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