U.S. constitutional requirements for admitting new states—typically beginning with territorial status, enabling legislation, and congressional approval—create insurmountable barriers for a sovereign nation like Venezuela absent its full consent and a formal process that has not begun. Recent U.S. military action leading to Maduro's capture and interim oversight in early 2026, followed by President Trump's May comments floating statehood tied to oil resources, prompted brief discussion but drew immediate rejection from Venezuelan officials citing independence. Traders assign only a 3.5% chance of Yes because such annexation would demand diplomatic, legal, and political shifts far beyond current developments. Late-breaking escalations in bilateral relations or regime change could theoretically alter trajectories, though no scheduled events point in that direction.