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icon for Elecciones presidenciales de Guinea-Bissau

Elecciones presidenciales de Guinea-Bissau

icon for Elecciones presidenciales de Guinea-Bissau

Elecciones presidenciales de Guinea-Bissau

Fernando Dias da Costa 33.7%

José Mário Vaz 2.9%

Umaro Sissoco Embaló 1.7%

Título del ítem del grupo: João Bernardo Vieira 1.7%

Polymarket

$339,755 Vol.

Fernando Dias da Costa 33.7%

José Mário Vaz 2.9%

Umaro Sissoco Embaló 1.7%

Título del ítem del grupo: João Bernardo Vieira 1.7%

Polymarket

$339,755 Vol.

Fernando Dias da Costa

$58,286 Vol.

23%

José Mário Vaz

$22,291 Vol.

3%

Umaro Sissoco Embaló

$91,019 Vol.

9%

Título del ítem del grupo: João Bernardo Vieira

$16,799 Vol.

2%

Honório Augusto Lopes

$18,792 Vol.

2%

João de Deus Mendes

$17,879 Vol.

2%

Baciro Djá

$14,548 Vol.

2%

Mamadu Iaia Djaló

$19,952 Vol.

2%

Mário da Silva Júnior

$18,352 Vol.

2%

Siga Batista

$25,961 Vol.

2%

Gabriel Fernando Indi

$19,458 Vol.

2%

Título del ítem del grupo: Herculano Armando Bequinsa

$16,419 Vol.

1%

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).**Fernando Dias da Costa leads trader pricing at 22.7% for the December 2026 presidential vote, ahead of Umaro Sissoco Embaló at 9.4% and a fragmented field of other contenders below 3%.** The wide-open contest stems from the November 2025 election annulment following a military coup that ousted Embaló days before results could be certified; unofficial tallies and opposition claims had positioned Dias, backed by the PAIGC-aligned coalition, as the frontrunner. Embaló’s standing reflects the impact of the junta’s takeover and his subsequent removal from power. Recent approval of a new constitution expanding presidential authority and imposing a five-year residency requirement has further shaped positioning, while the transitional military government’s scheduling of fresh legislative and presidential polls on December 6 keeps the field fluid. Consolidation behind any single name hinges on emerging party alliances, endorsements from key regional or ethnic bases, and signals from the military command regarding the process.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Volumen
$339,755
Fecha de finalización
23 nov 2025
Mercado abierto
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).**Fernando Dias da Costa leads trader pricing at 22.7% for the December 2026 presidential vote, ahead of Umaro Sissoco Embaló at 9.4% and a fragmented field of other contenders below 3%.** The wide-open contest stems from the November 2025 election annulment following a military coup that ousted Embaló days before results could be certified; unofficial tallies and opposition claims had positioned Dias, backed by the PAIGC-aligned coalition, as the frontrunner. Embaló’s standing reflects the impact of the junta’s takeover and his subsequent removal from power. Recent approval of a new constitution expanding presidential authority and imposing a five-year residency requirement has further shaped positioning, while the transitional military government’s scheduling of fresh legislative and presidential polls on December 6 keeps the field fluid. Consolidation behind any single name hinges on emerging party alliances, endorsements from key regional or ethnic bases, and signals from the military command regarding the process.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Volumen
$339,755
Fecha de finalización
23 nov 2025
Mercado abierto
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Elecciones presidenciales de Guinea-Bissau" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 12 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Fernando Dias da Costa" con 23%, seguido de "Umaro Sissoco Embaló" con 9%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 23¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 23% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Elecciones presidenciales de Guinea-Bissau" ha generado $339.8K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Nov 6, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Elecciones presidenciales de Guinea-Bissau", explora los 12 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Elecciones presidenciales de Guinea-Bissau" es "Fernando Dias da Costa" con 23%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 23% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Umaro Sissoco Embaló" con 9%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Elecciones presidenciales de Guinea-Bissau" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.