Trader consensus tilts strongly toward a high of 27°C or higher in Buenos Aires on March 28 (66% implied probability), propelled by ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models projecting peaks of 28-30°C under a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge fostering clear skies and warm advection. Recent observations confirm this trend, with highs reaching 26-28°C in the preceding days—above the late-March climatological average of 24-25°C—amid minimal convective activity. The 26°C outcome (15.5%) captures model spread uncertainty, while probabilities plummet for 24°C or below due to low risks of frontal passages or cloud cover, as per Servicio Meteorológico Nacional updates; traders await 12Z runs for refinements.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 28?
Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 28?
27°C or higher 66%
26°C 16%
24°C 7%
25°C 7%
17°C or below
2%
18°C
4%
19°C
2%
20°C
5%
21°C
5%
22°C
5%
23°C
5%
24°C
7%
25°C
7%
26°C
16%
27°C or higher
66%
27°C or higher 66%
26°C 16%
24°C 7%
25°C 7%
17°C or below
2%
18°C
4%
19°C
2%
20°C
5%
21°C
5%
22°C
5%
23°C
5%
24°C
7%
25°C
7%
26°C
16%
27°C or higher
66%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus tilts strongly toward a high of 27°C or higher in Buenos Aires on March 28 (66% implied probability), propelled by ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models projecting peaks of 28-30°C under a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge fostering clear skies and warm advection. Recent observations confirm this trend, with highs reaching 26-28°C in the preceding days—above the late-March climatological average of 24-25°C—amid minimal convective activity. The 26°C outcome (15.5%) captures model spread uncertainty, while probabilities plummet for 24°C or below due to low risks of frontal passages or cloud cover, as per Servicio Meteorológico Nacional updates; traders await 12Z runs for refinements.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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