Trader sentiment clusters around mild highs of 15-16°C for Wellington's March 25 maximum temperature, driven by the latest MetService forecasts showing ensemble means near 15.5°C amid a dominant southerly airflow pattern channeling cool Antarctic air masses northward. This setup, confirmed by ECMWF and GFS model runs updated yesterday, contrasts with March's historical average high of 19°C, as persistent low cloud cover and light winds cap daytime heating at official airport measurement sites. Closely matched 15°C (14.5%) and 16°C (16.5%) odds reflect model spread uncertainty—typically ±2°C for 7-day outlooks—while warmer 18-20°C tails (29.5% combined) hinge on potential ridge breakdown. Key watch: tomorrow's 12Z model refresh for resolution-defining diurnal peaks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Wellington on March 25?
Highest temperature in Wellington on March 25?
19°C 23%
18°C 22%
21°C 18%
17°C 17%
13°C or below
1%
14°C
5%
15°C
8%
16°C
17%
17°C
17%
18°C
22%
19°C
23%
20°C
10%
21°C
18%
22°C
12%
23°C or higher
14%
19°C 23%
18°C 22%
21°C 18%
17°C 17%
13°C or below
1%
14°C
5%
15°C
8%
16°C
17%
17°C
17%
18°C
22%
19°C
23%
20°C
10%
21°C
18%
22°C
12%
23°C or higher
14%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 21, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters around mild highs of 15-16°C for Wellington's March 25 maximum temperature, driven by the latest MetService forecasts showing ensemble means near 15.5°C amid a dominant southerly airflow pattern channeling cool Antarctic air masses northward. This setup, confirmed by ECMWF and GFS model runs updated yesterday, contrasts with March's historical average high of 19°C, as persistent low cloud cover and light winds cap daytime heating at official airport measurement sites. Closely matched 15°C (14.5%) and 16°C (16.5%) odds reflect model spread uncertainty—typically ±2°C for 7-day outlooks—while warmer 18-20°C tails (29.5% combined) hinge on potential ridge breakdown. Key watch: tomorrow's 12Z model refresh for resolution-defining diurnal peaks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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