Ensemble model forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and ECMWF, updated within the last 24 hours, cluster Seoul's March 25 high temperature around 13-15°C, fueling the razor-thin odds between 15°C+ (32%), 14°C (28%), and 13-12°C outcomes. A mild southerly flow ahead of an approaching weak front boosts implied probabilities for above-average warmth—Seoul's March climatological high is 12.5°C—while persistent low-level clouds and urban heat island moderation differentiate the leaders from cooler 11°C or below bets. Trader sentiment hinges on final 12Z model runs today, as small shifts in boundary layer mixing could swing the peak by 1-2°C amid typical late-winter variability.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Seoul on March 25?
Highest temperature in Seoul on March 25?
15°C or higher 32%
14°C 28%
12°C 24%
13°C 23%
5°C or below
1%
6°C
1%
7°C
1%
8°C
16%
9°C
14%
10°C
13%
11°C
16%
12°C
24%
13°C
23%
14°C
28%
15°C or higher
32%
15°C or higher 32%
14°C 28%
12°C 24%
13°C 23%
5°C or below
1%
6°C
1%
7°C
1%
8°C
16%
9°C
14%
10°C
13%
11°C
16%
12°C
24%
13°C
23%
14°C
28%
15°C or higher
32%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 21, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble model forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and ECMWF, updated within the last 24 hours, cluster Seoul's March 25 high temperature around 13-15°C, fueling the razor-thin odds between 15°C+ (32%), 14°C (28%), and 13-12°C outcomes. A mild southerly flow ahead of an approaching weak front boosts implied probabilities for above-average warmth—Seoul's March climatological high is 12.5°C—while persistent low-level clouds and urban heat island moderation differentiate the leaders from cooler 11°C or below bets. Trader sentiment hinges on final 12Z model runs today, as small shifts in boundary layer mixing could swing the peak by 1-2°C amid typical late-winter variability.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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