Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors highs of 3-5°C for Toronto on March 25, with near-even odds reflecting tight convergence in short-range forecasts from Environment Canada and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which project peaks around 4°C amid a cool northerly flow and upper-level trough over eastern Canada. Differentiating factors include diurnal timing of the maximum temperature—typically mid-afternoon—variable cloud cover potentially suppressing or allowing brief warm-ups, and slight model spread: ECMWF leans cooler at 2-4°C due to persistent stratiform clouds, while GFS hints at 5°C with possible ridging. Historical late-March averages hover near 6°C, but this year's negative temperature anomaly from lingering Arctic air keeps 0-2°C viable at 18-19%, underscoring forecast uncertainty as the date nears.