Trader consensus clusters tightly around 15–17°C for Shanghai's highest temperature on March 25, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting mild highs amid southerly winds and scattered clouds, with recent 12Z runs showing ECMWF variants favoring 16–17°C via enhanced solar heating and GFS leaning cooler at 15°C due to mid-level moisture influx. Differentiating factors include model spread from jet stream positioning and East China Sea influences, against March climatological averages of 13–18°C; current Pudong observations of overnight lows near 10°C and urban heat island amplification add upside risk, while shortwave trough potential tempers extremes. Key watch: 00Z updates for final convergence.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Shanghai on March 25?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on March 25?
16°C 30%
17°C 29%
15°C 25%
18°C 19%
11°C or below
1%
12°C
7%
13°C
16%
14°C
6%
15°C
25%
16°C
30%
17°C
29%
18°C
19%
19°C
14%
20°C
8%
21°C or higher
2%
16°C 30%
17°C 29%
15°C 25%
18°C 19%
11°C or below
1%
12°C
7%
13°C
16%
14°C
6%
15°C
25%
16°C
30%
17°C
29%
18°C
19%
19°C
14%
20°C
8%
21°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 21, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus clusters tightly around 15–17°C for Shanghai's highest temperature on March 25, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting mild highs amid southerly winds and scattered clouds, with recent 12Z runs showing ECMWF variants favoring 16–17°C via enhanced solar heating and GFS leaning cooler at 15°C due to mid-level moisture influx. Differentiating factors include model spread from jet stream positioning and East China Sea influences, against March climatological averages of 13–18°C; current Pudong observations of overnight lows near 10°C and urban heat island amplification add upside risk, while shortwave trough potential tempers extremes. Key watch: 00Z updates for final convergence.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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