Ensemble forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models form the core driver of trader sentiment, converging on a narrow 88-93°F range for Dallas's highest temperature on March 25, reflecting a persistent high-pressure ridge over Texas funneling warm, moist southerly flow from the Gulf. The slight edge for 88-89°F (28.5%) stems from the 12Z GFS run projecting peak heating near 89°F amid minor convective threats reducing insolation, while 90-91°F (26.5%) gains from ECMWF's drier scenario allowing fuller solar warming. Differentiators include afternoon cloud cover probabilities (20-30% per NWS guidance) and boundary layer mixing, with historical March anomalies underscoring model spread amid El Niño fade. NWS DFW's latest outlook centers on 89-92°F, keeping upper bins viable as traders eye hourly updates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Dallas on March 25?
Highest temperature in Dallas on March 25?
88-89°F 29%
90-91°F 27%
92-93°F 26%
86-87°F 24%
79°F or below
2%
80-81°F
8%
82-83°F
9%
84-85°F
15%
86-87°F
24%
88-89°F
29%
90-91°F
27%
92-93°F
26%
94-95°F
13%
96-97°F
1%
98°F or higher
1%
88-89°F 29%
90-91°F 27%
92-93°F 26%
86-87°F 24%
79°F or below
2%
80-81°F
8%
82-83°F
9%
84-85°F
15%
86-87°F
24%
88-89°F
29%
90-91°F
27%
92-93°F
26%
94-95°F
13%
96-97°F
1%
98°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 21, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models form the core driver of trader sentiment, converging on a narrow 88-93°F range for Dallas's highest temperature on March 25, reflecting a persistent high-pressure ridge over Texas funneling warm, moist southerly flow from the Gulf. The slight edge for 88-89°F (28.5%) stems from the 12Z GFS run projecting peak heating near 89°F amid minor convective threats reducing insolation, while 90-91°F (26.5%) gains from ECMWF's drier scenario allowing fuller solar warming. Differentiators include afternoon cloud cover probabilities (20-30% per NWS guidance) and boundary layer mixing, with historical March anomalies underscoring model spread amid El Niño fade. NWS DFW's latest outlook centers on 89-92°F, keeping upper bins viable as traders eye hourly updates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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