Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors highs of 11°C to 13°C for Paris on March 25, driven by the latest ECMWF and Météo-France ensemble forecasts projecting afternoon peaks in this narrow band amid a mild Atlantic flow. These closely matched odds reflect model spread: 11°C gains edge from potential low-level clouds and northerly breezes capping warming, while 13°C edges up on clearer skies in sunnier runs; 12°C serves as the median baseline matching historical March averages around 11.5–12.5°C. Recent GFS updates show slight bullish tilt toward 12–13°C with weakening frontal influences, but residual uncertainty from diurnal timing keeps lower outcomes viable, underscoring weather models' typical 2–3°C divergence this close to resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Paris on March 25?
Highest temperature in Paris on March 25?
11°C 31%
13°C 29%
12°C 28%
9°C 16%
7°C or below
2%
8°C
11%
9°C
16%
10°C
15%
11°C
31%
12°C
28%
13°C
29%
14°C
15%
15°C
12%
16°C
11%
17°C or higher
2%
11°C 31%
13°C 29%
12°C 28%
9°C 16%
7°C or below
2%
8°C
11%
9°C
16%
10°C
15%
11°C
31%
12°C
28%
13°C
29%
14°C
15%
15°C
12%
16°C
11%
17°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 21, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors highs of 11°C to 13°C for Paris on March 25, driven by the latest ECMWF and Météo-France ensemble forecasts projecting afternoon peaks in this narrow band amid a mild Atlantic flow. These closely matched odds reflect model spread: 11°C gains edge from potential low-level clouds and northerly breezes capping warming, while 13°C edges up on clearer skies in sunnier runs; 12°C serves as the median baseline matching historical March averages around 11.5–12.5°C. Recent GFS updates show slight bullish tilt toward 12–13°C with weakening frontal influences, but residual uncertainty from diurnal timing keeps lower outcomes viable, underscoring weather models' typical 2–3°C divergence this close to resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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