Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Paris high of 14°C (34%) over 15°C (25%) and 16°C (21%), driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models converging on 13-15°C amid an incoming Atlantic cold front bringing cloudy skies and reduced solar insolation. Météo-France's official outlook aligns closely at around 14°C, reflecting cooler thermal advection from the northwest that tempers earlier warmer projections. Differentiating the tight race, subtle model divergences persist—ECMWF hints at slightly higher peaks from urban heat island effects in central Paris measurements, while GFS emphasizes potential shower timing that could shave 1-2°C; historical March averages of 12-13°C underscore the mild but uncertain spring setup ahead of tomorrow's 12Z updates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Paris on March 22?
Highest temperature in Paris on March 22?
14°C 34%
15°C 25%
16°C 21%
13°C 14%
$14,036 Vol.
$14,036 Vol.
8°C or below
1%
9°C
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
2%
12°C
4%
13°C
14%
14°C
34%
15°C
25%
16°C
21%
17°C
3%
18°C or higher
2%
14°C 34%
15°C 25%
16°C 21%
13°C 14%
$14,036 Vol.
$14,036 Vol.
8°C or below
1%
9°C
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
2%
12°C
4%
13°C
14%
14°C
34%
15°C
25%
16°C
21%
17°C
3%
18°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Paris high of 14°C (34%) over 15°C (25%) and 16°C (21%), driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models converging on 13-15°C amid an incoming Atlantic cold front bringing cloudy skies and reduced solar insolation. Météo-France's official outlook aligns closely at around 14°C, reflecting cooler thermal advection from the northwest that tempers earlier warmer projections. Differentiating the tight race, subtle model divergences persist—ECMWF hints at slightly higher peaks from urban heat island effects in central Paris measurements, while GFS emphasizes potential shower timing that could shave 1-2°C; historical March averages of 12-13°C underscore the mild but uncertain spring setup ahead of tomorrow's 12Z updates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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