Divergent ensemble forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models are driving trader sentiment, with GFS clusters implying a 30%+ shot at 80°F+ under amplified ridge conditions, while ECMWF favors mid-70s amid potential mid-level trough influences. National Weather Service point forecast pegs Austin's high near 78°F, but spread reflects uncertainty in cloud cover, southerly winds, and frontal timing—key differentiators between 80°F+ (warm advection dominance) and clustered 70-73°F bins (increased mixing or diurnal suppression). Historical March 28 averages hover at 74°F with 5-7°F standard deviation, amplifying model divergence; traders eye afternoon updates for resolution shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Austin on March 28?
Highest temperature in Austin on March 28?
80°F or higher 28%
70-71°F 22%
72-73°F 21%
61°F or below 20%
61°F or below
20%
62-63°F
12%
64-65°F
14%
66-67°F
15%
68-69°F
17%
70-71°F
22%
72-73°F
21%
74-75°F
20%
76-77°F
19%
78-79°F
19%
80°F or higher
28%
80°F or higher 28%
70-71°F 22%
72-73°F 21%
61°F or below 20%
61°F or below
20%
62-63°F
12%
64-65°F
14%
66-67°F
15%
68-69°F
17%
70-71°F
22%
72-73°F
21%
74-75°F
20%
76-77°F
19%
78-79°F
19%
80°F or higher
28%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 6:13 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Divergent ensemble forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models are driving trader sentiment, with GFS clusters implying a 30%+ shot at 80°F+ under amplified ridge conditions, while ECMWF favors mid-70s amid potential mid-level trough influences. National Weather Service point forecast pegs Austin's high near 78°F, but spread reflects uncertainty in cloud cover, southerly winds, and frontal timing—key differentiators between 80°F+ (warm advection dominance) and clustered 70-73°F bins (increased mixing or diurnal suppression). Historical March 28 averages hover at 74°F with 5-7°F standard deviation, amplifying model divergence; traders eye afternoon updates for resolution shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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