Latest NOAA and National Weather Service forecast ensembles point to a high-pressure ridge anchoring over Texas, steering warm, southerly Gulf airflow into Austin and driving trader consensus toward highs of 90-91°F at 34% implied probability on March 26. This edges out 88-89°F (27.5%) and 92-93°F (19%), reflecting GFS model runs trending 1-2°F hotter than ECMWF counterparts amid low convective activity and ample solar insolation. Historical March 26 highs in Austin average 75°F but peak near 92°F during similar ridging; current dewpoints in the 60s limit mixing, favoring peak afternoon heating around 3-5 PM. Traders eye 12Z updates for potential sharpening of the tight 88-93°F cluster.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Austin on March 26?
Highest temperature in Austin on March 26?
90-91°F 35%
88-89°F 28%
92-93°F 19%
86-87°F 10%
81°F or below
<1%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
10%
86-87°F
10%
88-89°F
28%
90-91°F
35%
92-93°F
19%
94-95°F
7%
96-97°F
1%
98-99°F
1%
100°F or higher
1%
90-91°F 35%
88-89°F 28%
92-93°F 19%
86-87°F 10%
81°F or below
<1%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
10%
86-87°F
10%
88-89°F
28%
90-91°F
35%
92-93°F
19%
94-95°F
7%
96-97°F
1%
98-99°F
1%
100°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:19 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest NOAA and National Weather Service forecast ensembles point to a high-pressure ridge anchoring over Texas, steering warm, southerly Gulf airflow into Austin and driving trader consensus toward highs of 90-91°F at 34% implied probability on March 26. This edges out 88-89°F (27.5%) and 92-93°F (19%), reflecting GFS model runs trending 1-2°F hotter than ECMWF counterparts amid low convective activity and ample solar insolation. Historical March 26 highs in Austin average 75°F but peak near 92°F during similar ridging; current dewpoints in the 60s limit mixing, favoring peak afternoon heating around 3-5 PM. Traders eye 12Z updates for potential sharpening of the tight 88-93°F cluster.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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