Recent ensemble forecasts from INMET and global models like GFS and ECMWF indicate Sao Paulo's highest temperature on March 26 will likely peak near 30°C, fueling the tight race with 32.5% implied probability for 30°C, 27.5% for 29°C, and 20.5% for 31°C. Differentiating factors include GFS projections leaning hotter due to persistent high-pressure ridging over southern Brazil, while ECMWF anticipates cooler sea breeze incursions from the Atlantic moderating afternoon peaks. Urban heat island effects in Sao Paulo amplify measured highs at official stations, where historical late-March averages hover around 28.5°C amid recent warmer anomalies. Traders eye upcoming 12-hourly model runs for resolution shifts before the event.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Sao Paulo el 26 de marzo?
¿La temperatura más alta en Sao Paulo el 26 de marzo?
30°C 33%
29°C 25%
31°C 21%
28°C 10%
$77,662 Vol.
$77,662 Vol.
22°C o menos
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
2%
28°C
10%
29°C
25%
30°C
33%
31°C
21%
32°C o más
9%
30°C 33%
29°C 25%
31°C 21%
28°C 10%
$77,662 Vol.
$77,662 Vol.
22°C o menos
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
2%
28°C
10%
29°C
25%
30°C
33%
31°C
21%
32°C o más
9%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from INMET and global models like GFS and ECMWF indicate Sao Paulo's highest temperature on March 26 will likely peak near 30°C, fueling the tight race with 32.5% implied probability for 30°C, 27.5% for 29°C, and 20.5% for 31°C. Differentiating factors include GFS projections leaning hotter due to persistent high-pressure ridging over southern Brazil, while ECMWF anticipates cooler sea breeze incursions from the Atlantic moderating afternoon peaks. Urban heat island effects in Sao Paulo amplify measured highs at official stations, where historical late-March averages hover around 28.5°C amid recent warmer anomalies. Traders eye upcoming 12-hourly model runs for resolution shifts before the event.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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