Ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models drive the tight race in Sao Paulo's March 25 highest temperature odds, with ECMWF leaning toward 29-31°C peaks amid a subtropical high-pressure ridge, while GFS ensembles show a 20-25% outlier risk for 34°C+ under prolonged clear skies and northerly föhn winds suppressing sea breezes. Historical late-March maxima average 28°C, but recent dry antecedent conditions and fading El Niño remnants amplify heat potential, differentiating extremes: 34°C+ demands zero afternoon convection, versus 26-29°C favored by typical orographic lift and urban heat island moderation. Traders eye tonight's 00Z updates for resolution shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 25?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 25?
29°C 22%
26°C 18%
27°C 18%
28°C 18%
24°C o menos
2%
25°C
17%
26°C
18%
27°C
18%
28°C
18%
29°C
22%
30°C
18%
31°C
17%
32°C
14%
33°C
12%
34°C or higher
2%
29°C 22%
26°C 18%
27°C 18%
28°C 18%
24°C o menos
2%
25°C
17%
26°C
18%
27°C
18%
28°C
18%
29°C
22%
30°C
18%
31°C
17%
32°C
14%
33°C
12%
34°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 21, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models drive the tight race in Sao Paulo's March 25 highest temperature odds, with ECMWF leaning toward 29-31°C peaks amid a subtropical high-pressure ridge, while GFS ensembles show a 20-25% outlier risk for 34°C+ under prolonged clear skies and northerly föhn winds suppressing sea breezes. Historical late-March maxima average 28°C, but recent dry antecedent conditions and fading El Niño remnants amplify heat potential, differentiating extremes: 34°C+ demands zero afternoon convection, versus 26-29°C favored by typical orographic lift and urban heat island moderation. Traders eye tonight's 00Z updates for resolution shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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