Trader sentiment for Wellington's highest temperature on March 26 hinges on the latest MetService forecasts projecting a peak near 19-20°C under a high-pressure ridge bringing settled late-summer conditions, with 19°C edging out 20°C or higher at 34.5% versus 29.5% implied probabilities. Ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS show tight clustering around 19.5°C, tempered by persistent southerly sea breezes that often cap coastal maxima 1-2°C below inland sites, differentiating the close race from 18°C (22%). Historical March averages of 20°C provide context, but recent cool anomalies from La Niña influences have traders hedging below seasonal norms ahead of tomorrow's refined outlook.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Wellington on March 26?
Highest temperature in Wellington on March 26?
19°C 34%
20°C or higher 28%
18°C 22%
17°C 14%
$146,142 Vol.
$146,142 Vol.
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
4%
17°C
14%
18°C
22%
19°C
34%
20°C or higher
28%
19°C 34%
20°C or higher 28%
18°C 22%
17°C 14%
$146,142 Vol.
$146,142 Vol.
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
4%
17°C
14%
18°C
22%
19°C
34%
20°C or higher
28%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Wellington's highest temperature on March 26 hinges on the latest MetService forecasts projecting a peak near 19-20°C under a high-pressure ridge bringing settled late-summer conditions, with 19°C edging out 20°C or higher at 34.5% versus 29.5% implied probabilities. Ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS show tight clustering around 19.5°C, tempered by persistent southerly sea breezes that often cap coastal maxima 1-2°C below inland sites, differentiating the close race from 18°C (22%). Historical March averages of 20°C provide context, but recent cool anomalies from La Niña influences have traders hedging below seasonal norms ahead of tomorrow's refined outlook.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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