Trader sentiment on Warsaw's highest temperature March 26 clusters tightly around 8-11°C, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on a mild high near 9-10°C amid a weak high-pressure ridge over Central Europe. This reflects advection of Atlantic mild air, with model means at 9.2°C (ECMWF) and 9.8°C (GFS 00Z run), but slight divergences arise from uncertainty in morning cloud cover and southerly wind gusts influencing boundary-layer mixing. Historical March 26 averages hover at 9°C (1981-2010 baseline), while recent synoptic evolution—post-cold frontal clearance—bolsters 9°C as the peak consensus at 33%, with traders pricing in low-volatility diurnal peaks at Warsaw's Chopin Observatory station. Upcoming 12Z model updates could sharpen odds further.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Warsaw on March 26?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 26?
9°C 33%
10°C 25%
11°C 18%
8°C 15%
$68,750 Vol.
$68,750 Vol.
3°C or below
<1%
4°C
1%
5°C
1%
6°C
4%
7°C
5%
8°C
15%
9°C
33%
10°C
25%
11°C
18%
12°C
6%
13°C or higher
3%
9°C 33%
10°C 25%
11°C 18%
8°C 15%
$68,750 Vol.
$68,750 Vol.
3°C or below
<1%
4°C
1%
5°C
1%
6°C
4%
7°C
5%
8°C
15%
9°C
33%
10°C
25%
11°C
18%
12°C
6%
13°C or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:12 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Warsaw's highest temperature March 26 clusters tightly around 8-11°C, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on a mild high near 9-10°C amid a weak high-pressure ridge over Central Europe. This reflects advection of Atlantic mild air, with model means at 9.2°C (ECMWF) and 9.8°C (GFS 00Z run), but slight divergences arise from uncertainty in morning cloud cover and southerly wind gusts influencing boundary-layer mixing. Historical March 26 averages hover at 9°C (1981-2010 baseline), while recent synoptic evolution—post-cold frontal clearance—bolsters 9°C as the peak consensus at 33%, with traders pricing in low-volatility diurnal peaks at Warsaw's Chopin Observatory station. Upcoming 12Z model updates could sharpen odds further.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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