Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward upper 80s highs for Austin's March 27 peak temperature, driven by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts converging on 86-91°F amid a persistent upper-level ridge fostering adiabatic warming and southerly winds advecting Gulf moisture. This setup has boosted odds for 86-89°F bins to over 49% combined, differentiating them from lower 80s via reduced cloud cover probabilities—NWS guidance shows <20% chance of afternoon convection that could otherwise cap peaks through evaporative cooling. Slightly trailing 90+°F reflects outlier hotter GFS runs, while cooler outcomes fade against climatological March norms of 76°F but recent heat dome precedents; watch Thursday's 12Z model updates for resolution shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Austin on March 27?
Highest temperature in Austin on March 27?
86-87°F 26%
88-89°F 24%
84-85°F 21%
90-91°F 19%
75°F or below
1%
76-77°F
3%
78-79°F
4%
80-81°F
7%
82-83°F
10%
84-85°F
21%
86-87°F
26%
88-89°F
24%
90-91°F
19%
92-93°F
19%
94°F or higher
11%
86-87°F 26%
88-89°F 24%
84-85°F 21%
90-91°F 19%
75°F or below
1%
76-77°F
3%
78-79°F
4%
80-81°F
7%
82-83°F
10%
84-85°F
21%
86-87°F
26%
88-89°F
24%
90-91°F
19%
92-93°F
19%
94°F or higher
11%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward upper 80s highs for Austin's March 27 peak temperature, driven by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts converging on 86-91°F amid a persistent upper-level ridge fostering adiabatic warming and southerly winds advecting Gulf moisture. This setup has boosted odds for 86-89°F bins to over 49% combined, differentiating them from lower 80s via reduced cloud cover probabilities—NWS guidance shows <20% chance of afternoon convection that could otherwise cap peaks through evaporative cooling. Slightly trailing 90+°F reflects outlier hotter GFS runs, while cooler outcomes fade against climatological March norms of 76°F but recent heat dome precedents; watch Thursday's 12Z model updates for resolution shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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