Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration indicate peak temperatures in Guangzhou on September 1 most likely between 31–33°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, moderate northerly winds, and scattered showers that limit daytime heating. This aligns closely with the long-term climatological average of about 32.9°C for early September in the subtropical Pearl River Delta region. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around these values reflects genuine forecast uncertainty from varying precipitation timing and intensity, with lower odds assigned to extremes that would require atypical clear skies or stronger advection. Updated model runs and official observations through August 31 will refine the final maximum.