Trader consensus clusters tightly around 18–20°C (64.5% combined probability) for Madrid's highest temperature on March 22, driven by ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on mild highs amid a stable Azores High ridge fostering warm advection from the southwest. Recent 12Z model runs show a slight uptick toward 19–20°C, differentiating from cooler 17–18°C outliers linked to potential nocturnal cold air pooling or transient cloud cover. Historical late-March baselines average 17°C, but current +2–3°C anomalies from soil moisture deficits and low wind shear amplify warmth; monitor AEMET updates for resolution-defining hourly maxima at Retiro station.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Madrid el 22 de marzo?
¿La temperatura más alta en Madrid el 22 de marzo?
19°C 24%
18°C 22%
20°C 19%
17°C 13%
14°C o menos
1%
15°C
4%
16°C
8%
17°C
13%
18°C
22%
19°C
24%
20°C
19%
21°C
4%
22°C
2%
23°C
4%
24°C o más
4%
19°C 24%
18°C 22%
20°C 19%
17°C 13%
14°C o menos
1%
15°C
4%
16°C
8%
17°C
13%
18°C
22%
19°C
24%
20°C
19%
21°C
4%
22°C
2%
23°C
4%
24°C o más
4%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 18, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus clusters tightly around 18–20°C (64.5% combined probability) for Madrid's highest temperature on March 22, driven by ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on mild highs amid a stable Azores High ridge fostering warm advection from the southwest. Recent 12Z model runs show a slight uptick toward 19–20°C, differentiating from cooler 17–18°C outliers linked to potential nocturnal cold air pooling or transient cloud cover. Historical late-March baselines average 17°C, but current +2–3°C anomalies from soil moisture deficits and low wind shear amplify warmth; monitor AEMET updates for resolution-defining hourly maxima at Retiro station.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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