Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Moscow's highest temperature on April 4 at 13–15°C, fueling trader consensus for 14°C or higher at 60.5% implied probability amid a persistent high-pressure ridge over European Russia promoting clear skies and above-normal daytime heating. This positioning reflects the ongoing early-April 2026 warm anomaly, with April 3 highs forecasted up to 18°C in the Moscow region—5–8°C above the climatological average of 8–10°C—driven by zonal upper-air steering patterns reducing cold air advection. Ensemble spreads highlight uncertainty from potential afternoon cloudiness or light winds, clustering next-highest odds at 13°C (18.5%) and 12°C (15.5%); Roshydromet hourly updates and official VVC station observations will sharpen resolution as the event unfolds tomorrow.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Moscow on April 4?
Highest temperature in Moscow on April 4?
14°C or higher 60%
13°C 21%
12°C 16%
11°C 6.3%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 abr 2026
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
1%
10°C
3%
11°C
6%
12°C
16%
13°C
21%
14°C or higher
60%
14°C or higher 60%
13°C 21%
12°C 16%
11°C 6.3%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 abr 2026
4°C or below
$781 Vol.
<1%
5°C
$710 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$578 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$401 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$925 Vol.
1%
9°C
$574 Vol.
1%
10°C
$769 Vol.
3%
11°C
$483 Vol.
6%
12°C
$415 Vol.
16%
13°C
$396 Vol.
21%
14°C or higher
$590 Vol.
60%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Moscow's highest temperature on April 4 at 13–15°C, fueling trader consensus for 14°C or higher at 60.5% implied probability amid a persistent high-pressure ridge over European Russia promoting clear skies and above-normal daytime heating. This positioning reflects the ongoing early-April 2026 warm anomaly, with April 3 highs forecasted up to 18°C in the Moscow region—5–8°C above the climatological average of 8–10°C—driven by zonal upper-air steering patterns reducing cold air advection. Ensemble spreads highlight uncertainty from potential afternoon cloudiness or light winds, clustering next-highest odds at 13°C (18.5%) and 12°C (15.5%); Roshydromet hourly updates and official VVC station observations will sharpen resolution as the event unfolds tomorrow.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 29, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Volumen
$6,620Fecha de finalización
4 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 29, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Moscow's highest temperature on April 4 at 13–15°C, fueling trader consensus for 14°C or higher at 60.5% implied probability amid a persistent high-pressure ridge over European Russia promoting clear skies and above-normal daytime heating. This positioning reflects the ongoing early-April 2026 warm anomaly, with April 3 highs forecasted up to 18°C in the Moscow region—5–8°C above the climatological average of 8–10°C—driven by zonal upper-air steering patterns reducing cold air advection. Ensemble spreads highlight uncertainty from potential afternoon cloudiness or light winds, clustering next-highest odds at 13°C (18.5%) and 12°C (15.5%); Roshydromet hourly updates and official VVC station observations will sharpen resolution as the event unfolds tomorrow.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$6,620Fecha de finalización
4 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 29, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Moscow's highest temperature on April 4 at 13–15°C, fueling trader consensus for 14°C or higher at 60.5% implied probability amid a persistent high-pressure ridge over European Russia promoting clear skies and above-normal daytime heating. This positioning reflects the ongoing early-April 2026 warm anomaly, with April 3 highs forecasted up to 18°C in the Moscow region—5–8°C above the climatological average of 8–10°C—driven by zonal upper-air steering patterns reducing cold air advection. Ensemble spreads highlight uncertainty from potential afternoon cloudiness or light winds, clustering next-highest odds at 13°C (18.5%) and 12°C (15.5%); Roshydromet hourly updates and official VVC station observations will sharpen resolution as the event unfolds tomorrow.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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