Tight clustering of probabilities around 23–25°C reflects the latest ensemble forecasts from Taiwan's Central Weather Administration (CWA) and global models like ECMWF and GFS, projecting a daytime high near 24.5°C amid mild southerly winds and partial cloud cover on March 26. Historical March averages for Taipei hover at 23–25°C, with recent days seeing highs of 24–26°C under similar high-pressure influence, but a potential weak frontal boundary introduces downside risk toward 23°C by enhancing low-level moisture and sea breezes. Upside to 27°C or higher hinges on fuller sunshine and subsidence, deemed less likely at 24% as soil moisture and urban heat effects temper extremes in late-spring transitions. Trader sentiment weighs this model consensus against observed diurnal variability, with upcoming hourly CWA updates pivotal.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Taipei on March 26?
Highest temperature in Taipei on March 26?
27°C or higher 24%
24°C 21%
25°C 18%
23°C 15%
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
2%
21°C
2%
22°C
4%
23°C
26%
24°C
29%
25°C
28%
26°C
13%
27°C or higher
24%
27°C or higher 24%
24°C 21%
25°C 18%
23°C 15%
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
2%
21°C
2%
22°C
4%
23°C
26%
24°C
29%
25°C
28%
26°C
13%
27°C or higher
24%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:30 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Tight clustering of probabilities around 23–25°C reflects the latest ensemble forecasts from Taiwan's Central Weather Administration (CWA) and global models like ECMWF and GFS, projecting a daytime high near 24.5°C amid mild southerly winds and partial cloud cover on March 26. Historical March averages for Taipei hover at 23–25°C, with recent days seeing highs of 24–26°C under similar high-pressure influence, but a potential weak frontal boundary introduces downside risk toward 23°C by enhancing low-level moisture and sea breezes. Upside to 27°C or higher hinges on fuller sunshine and subsidence, deemed less likely at 24% as soil moisture and urban heat effects temper extremes in late-spring transitions. Trader sentiment weighs this model consensus against observed diurnal variability, with upcoming hourly CWA updates pivotal.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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