Illinois's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in the party's commanding position in the 2026 general election market. Following incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García's retirement, Patty Garcia secured the Democratic nomination without primary opposition, while Lupe Castillo advanced as the Republican nominee. The district's partisan voting index and consistent prior results favor Democratic candidates by wide margins. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with the structural advantages for the Democratic nominee. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major national political shifts, unexpected candidate developments, or unusually high Republican turnout in the November general election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoIL-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
IL-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$52,331 Vol.
$52,331 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
95%
Partido Republicano
3%
$52,331 Vol.
$52,331 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$37,684 Vol.
95%
Partido Republicano
$14,647 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Illinois's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in the party's commanding position in the 2026 general election market. Following incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García's retirement, Patty Garcia secured the Democratic nomination without primary opposition, while Lupe Castillo advanced as the Republican nominee. The district's partisan voting index and consistent prior results favor Democratic candidates by wide margins. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with the structural advantages for the Democratic nominee. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major national political shifts, unexpected candidate developments, or unusually high Republican turnout in the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volumen
$52,331Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Illinois's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in the party's commanding position in the 2026 general election market. Following incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García's retirement, Patty Garcia secured the Democratic nomination without primary opposition, while Lupe Castillo advanced as the Republican nominee. The district's partisan voting index and consistent prior results favor Democratic candidates by wide margins. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with the structural advantages for the Democratic nominee. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major national political shifts, unexpected candidate developments, or unusually high Republican turnout in the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$52,331Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Illinois's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in the party's commanding position in the 2026 general election market. Following incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García's retirement, Patty Garcia secured the Democratic nomination without primary opposition, while Lupe Castillo advanced as the Republican nominee. The district's partisan voting index and consistent prior results favor Democratic candidates by wide margins. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with the structural advantages for the Democratic nominee. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major national political shifts, unexpected candidate developments, or unusually high Republican turnout in the November general election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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